Though many people typically perceive the upcoming Golden Globe Awards to foreshadow the results of the Oscars, recent trends indicate that the Golden Globes maintain more of an influential affect on the Oscars rather than a foretelling one.
When the Globe announcements are complete, there are still several weeks remaining before the Oscar polls close, meaning that rather than reining in their efforts, film campaigners actually intensify their efforts, especially in the case of films that did not fare as well in the Globe nominations.
Variety Magazine pointed out that last year, while The Kings Speech and The Social Network were dominating the Globes conversation, True Grit was overlooked, failing to earn even a single nomination. However, due to intensified campaigning from Oscar representatives for the film, it assembled a whopping ten Oscar nominations, including the coveted Best Picture.
And this trend is not novel to the past two years. In 2010, the majority of films nominated for best picture at the Oscars, including The Blind Side, An Education, and A Serious Man, received very few nominations at the Golden Globes. As evidenced by these trends, it becomes increasingly apparent that while the Globes may foreshadow Oscars results in the terms of the types and genres of films that people are paying attention to, it certainly does not predict the specific films that will receive Oscar accolades.
So what does this mean for the upcoming season? Well, for the films nominated for the prestigious awards at the Globes, probably not much. It is unlikely that The Help, The Descendants, The Ides of March and War Horse, four of the noteworthy Globe nominations for best picture, will be overlooked. However, for critically acclaimed films that did not receive Globe nominations, including The Tree of Life and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, there is certainly no guarantee these films will also be ignored at the Oscars.
With increased campaigning efforts on all their accounts, any of these films, as well as any others that may have been overlooked at the Globes, could very well secure an Oscar nomination in even the most prestigious of categories.