Signing day is a false sign of success

Tomorrow marks one of the single most hectic days on the sports calendar — National Signing Day. If a petition does not yet exist to make this day a national holiday in the United States, then we’ve failed as a society. If the United States’ 21st century obsession with reality television is any indication, then giving the people this day off from their responsibilities would make ESPN’s round-the-clock coverage of signing day the top-rated television program of the year.

Signing day is made for TV and has everything you would ever want in a reality show — drama, betrayal, suspense, you name it — mixed with the fervor of the nation’s most popular sport. Put some cameras, microphones and a few hats in front of a prized recruit and just watch the madness unfold.

There will be the usual diva-like behavior from dozens of prospects who are deemed “blue chip” or “can’t miss” — many of whom will amount to very little in their college careers. But that doesn’t mean their announcements aren’t worth watching — never underestimate the showmanship of a high school senior. Nor will it prevent analysts from determining NSD winners and losers months before any of the players ever play a snap of college football.

Though watching the commitments come in for your favorite school is exciting and tantalizing, the bottom line is that it’s just way too early to tell whether or not a recruiting class will be successful. Take a look at USC’s past few classes to see just how misguided the early reactions were at the time.

In 2010, former head coach Lane Kiffin’s first season, the Trojans’ class ranked No. 7 in the nation, according to ESPN. Five of USC’s top-10 commits that season were wide receiver Markeith Ambles, running back D.J. Morgan, wide receiver Kyle Prater, quarterback Jesse Scroggins and running back Dillon Baxter. All but one from that group transferred out of the school, and Morgan has yet to make a meaningful impact in his career.

In 2011, USC brought in the No. 4 class in the country, headlined by top-ranked wide receiver George Farmer and top-ranked offensive guard Cyrus Hobbi. Neither have seen regular playing time for the Trojans. The same can be said for two of USC’s other top-five commits (according to ESPN) — quarterback Max Wittek (who announced his intent to transfer last week) and wide receiver Victor Blackwell.

It’s still a little too soon to judge the 2012 and 2013 classes, as those players just completed their freshman and sophomore seasons. The standout from 2012 is sophomore defensive end Leonard Williams, who was an All-American last season and seems destined to be a first-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Sophomore wide receiver Nelson Agholor looks like a star in the making, and sophomore cornerback Kevon Seymour, as well as sophomore offensive lineman Max Tuerk, were starters last season. Unheralded transfers such as senior Morgan Breslin and redshirt junior Josh Shaw ended up being key contributors right away, giving this class a good boost.

Many of the top players from the 2013 class seized their opportunities last season. Freshman safety Su’a Cravens has been a starter from day one and tied for second on the team with four interceptions. Many of his classmates also made an impact right away. Wide receiver Darreus Rogers is USC’s second-leading receiver returning next season, and running backs Justin Davis and Ty Isaac showed tons of promise in USC’s crowded yet talented backfield.

Which leads me to my point — that it’s silly to get overly excited or disappointed by whatever will happen tomorrow. Players who generate celebration amongst a fanbase will end up not panning out. Others who are ranked at the bottom of the list will become stars who lead the team in a season or two.

Dion Bailey and Hayes Pullard of the 2010 class were both listed as three-star recruits by Scout.com and didn’t have defined positions. Both became three-year starters and earned all-conference honors, and Pullard will have a chance to add to that impressive resume’ next year in his fifth and final season.

Redshirt junior Quarterback Cody Kessler was also a three-star recruit and considered USC’s “other” quarterback in the Class of 2011 behind the much more highly touted Wittek. Three years later, Kessler has a firm grasp on the starting job after leading the team to a gutsy 10-win season and throwing for nearly 3,000 yards, while Wittek is on his way to transferring to another program.

Yes, Marqise Lee was ranked in the ESPN Top 150 rankings, but most projected him as a defensive back, and much more attention was given to Lee’s high school teammate Farmer. Lee ended up on the offensive side of the ball and became one of the best receivers in conference history.

USC’s 2014 class currently ranks No. 34 in the nation, and right now that means just about nothing. Neither Oregon nor Stanford has had a single top-10 class in the last five years. The ability to cultivate an 18-year-old’s raw talent and put them in the best position to succeed is far more important than racking up the most star ratings.

So when keeping up to speed on all the happenings of NSD tomorrow, tune in for the pageantry and angry responses from spurned fans on Twitter rather than the class rankings, because, as you’ll find out once the 2014 season kicks off, the true impact from the most recent NSD is a couple of years away from truly being felt.

Nick Selbe is a senior majoring in communication. His column, “Inside the 20s,” runs Tuesdays. To comment on this story or to tell Nick that “In the Nick of Time” would be a better column name, visit dailytrojan.com or email him at [email protected].