Students Talk Back analyzes election results
The Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics hosted its final Students Talk Back panel of the semester this week, entitled “Making Sense of the Midterms: A Post Election Analysis.” The panel consisted of Anthony Portantino, former California Assemblymember, 44th District and an adjunct professor at USC; Anthony Russo, a partner at the public affairs company Russo Miller and Associates; Alec White, president of the USC College Democrats and Jordan Tygh, vice president of the USC College Republicans. The panel was moderated by Dan Schnur, executive director of the Unruh Institute and Anshu Siripurapu, news editor of the Daily Trojan.
The panel opened with a general discussion of the effects of the midterm election within California. White noted that the Democratic party presence in the state was strong.
“A lot has to do with how Jerry Brown is as a governor,” White said. “A lot of other states [that] have difficulty with losing democratic seats also had poor governorships.”
The panel also discussed Brown’s challenger, Neel Kashkari, a moderate Republican who panelists agreed help to bolster the opinion of the G.O.P. in California, where Republicans won several important Assembly seats.
“The top of the ticket helps the rest of the race,” Tygh said.
The discussion then moved away from the election itself to the future of the state under fourth term Governor Brown.
Portatino discussed the possibility of a more cautious legislature following the Republican gain of one-third of the State Assembly seats.
“With two new Democratic leaders and the supermajority right on the edge, and a governor who has shown a lack of interest in raising taxes, I think there is going to be some interesting conversation moving forward,” Portantino said. “It’s going to be an interesting time for Democrats in power because even though they are in power there’s going to be a pause for cause.”
He believed that though Democrats would not be able to carry out their decisions as effectively with the addition of the Republicans, this could be beneficial in resulting in better decision-making.
“When you have to stop and think about what you do typically you make better decisions … There are still enough votes to make things happen, but they will have to take a more pragmatic approach,” he said.
The discussion of state politics then segued into a discussion of the midterms in the national context. Panelists were eager to discuss the Republican sweep for a majority in the House and Senate, as well as analyze the broader implications for national politics.
“I think the more pragmatic Republicans will be looking at the White House [now],” Portantino said. “Everyone is giving themselves credit for the sweep to try to position themselves for the presidency.”
Russo attributed Republican success in this midterm to the return of moderate G.O.P. representatives, as opposed to 2010 Tea Party sweep which saw Democratic backlash during the 2012 general election.
“There are different Republicans just like there are different Democrats,” Russo said. “There was a huge push to not let Tea Party Republicans take control of the 2014 election.”
White commented on the disappointing national results for the Democrats.
“Historically Democrats have had a very strong turnout machine but they didn’t do that so well this year … I think this year we weren’t as aggressive. We didn’t have a clear theme or message,” White said. He added that he felt that the party’s base of young people and minorities were not motivated to go to the polls.
The panel then turned its attention to 2016, and the possible slate of presidential candidates.
“I think you have to say at this point that the Republican tide has the potential to have legs in 2016,” Portantino said. He mentioned, however, that they needed to prove themselves following this midterm sweep in order to make that happen.
“With responsibility and authority you have to make decisions,” Portantino said. “They can no longer be the party of no.”
Russo agreed and added an important note for the future of California.
“Nationally, I think Republicans have to prove that they can govern and then they will have the opportunity for the presidency,” Russo said. “The real question in California is, will Republicans be able to hold on to the gains that they made in this election in 2016?”
As they moved on to potential presidential candidates, the panelists agreed that Hillary Clinton seemed to be the Democratic frontrunner.
“Hillary [Clinton] has not announced, but as my mother always said, ‘if Hillary Clinton is breathing Hillary Clinton is running,’” White said, to audience laughter.
White said that he believed other potential nominees such as Senator Elizabeth Warren and current Vice President Joseph Biden weren’t popular enough to gain the support of the wider Democratic party.
Tygh commented on the Republican Party’s lack of a similarly popular candidate.
“I think the difference between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party is that … there is not just one person that everyone is rallying behind,” Tygh said.
Tygh did comment, however, on the possibility of a serial presidential campaigner other than Clinton returning in 2016: Mitt Romney.
“I don’t think you’ll see a Romney comeback, but there are some donors pushing for it and some supporters pushing for it, and if he gets enough support you might just see it. I think if he ran he would be the nominee,” Tygh said.