Roundtable: Can Stanford upset USC?


The Trojans are 2-0 and could face their first test of the season as they get ready to take on their first Pac-12 opponent in Stanford. Daily Trojan columnists Luke Holthouse, Nick Barbarino and Jake Davidson join Daily Trojan sports editor Darian Nourian to discuss what to anticipate from both teams when they clash this Saturday.

What should we expect to see from the Trojans against Stanford?

Davidson: The Trojans will probably come out somewhat conservatively against the Cardinal, which is unfortunate, but Stanford generally dictates the tempo of their opponent. It would be great to see coach Steve Sarkisian continue the role of aggressor and attack Stanford with the incredible offensive weapons at his disposal. The Cardinal are experienced and fundamentally sound but their coach David Shaw plays to win. If USC can play its game and drive the ball down the field, I expect to see a two to three touchdown victory.

Barbarino: This game is going to be won in the trenches. In week one, Northwestern exposed the Stanford defensive line, gaining 225 yards on the ground. I expect the Trojans to enter the game with the same mindset. Expect a lot of running from the trio of Justin Davis, Tre Madden and Ronald Jones III. All that running attack should open up the play-action for Cody Kessler.

Holthouse: I think the Trojans will come out with fire against Stanford. Maybe not quite as much as the last time they hosted the Cardinal, but this is still a legitimate rival. Defensively, USC has a really interesting matchup. Despite its power-run mentality, Stanford’s offense has struggled in the red zone against USC. I don’t know if USC should be more worried about overloading the box or just keeping the offense in front of it. Offensively, though, the Trojans should focus on just keeping possession of the ball. Consistently moving the chains will be more important than the occasional explosive play.

Nourian: Expect the Trojans to come out fast. The difference between this year’s USC team and last year’s team is that they’re much more comfortable in the up-tempo system and with the way this offense has been playing lately, I don’t see them slowing down against the Cardinal on Saturday. Stanford will try and slow the game down with its ground-and-pound running game, but the USC defense’s front seven has seen a lot of bright spots in its first two games and seems ready to answer that call. I also wouldn’t be surprised if offensive coordinator Clay Helton took a couple shots down the field early in the game — when you have a Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback in Kessler and explosive talent on the outside with JuJu Smith-Schuster, chances are you’ve got a pretty good shot at breaking a big play.

Who will be USC’s greatest impact player? Who will be Stanford’s impact player?

LH: If Stanford is going to stay in this game, it certainly will need a big day from quarterback Kevin Hogan. The last two years, Stanford has outgained the Trojans but had two more turnovers. I don’t think Stanford has the offensive firepower to match USC’s yardage, but Hogan will have to protect the ball for Stanford to have a chance. For USC, I hope the game doesn’t get to this point, but if it requires a big field goal like the last two times, it will be interesting to see if Alex Wood has the same killer instinct against Stanford as his predecessor, Andre Heidari.

DN: Kessler’s going to get his numbers and protect the ball, but USC’s committee of running backs are going to play a vital role against Stanford. In its first two games, USC averaged just under 235 rushing yards a game on the ground and will be expected to have a strong performance this week in order to balance out the passing game. There’s no doubt that the Trojans’ running game has enhanced the passing game, opening up a lot of opportunities for play-action passes down the field. USC’s depth at the running back position is its best in years with veterans Madden and Davis setting the foundation and freshmen Jones III and Aca’Cedric Ware making big contributions early on. On the other hand, Stanford is going to need a monster game from sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey, who leads the team in rushing and will have to rack at least a century on the ground if the Cardinal want to have a chance to win.

NB: USC’s impact player is going to be Ronald Jones III. Jones leads the Trojans in yards per game (84.5) and total rushing yards (169). With Madden and Davis handling a majority of the carries, Jones has been able to take advantage of a tired defense and should see plenty of chances against the Cardinal. Stanford’s X-factor will be Kevin Hogan. After struggling against Northwestern — only managing 155 yards — Hogan exploded for 341 yards and three touchdowns against UCF.

JD: I’d say it’s a position group more than a specific player. If USC’s offensive line can play like they did against Idaho and not Arkansas State, USC will win. If they can’t handle the pressure from Stanford’s grizzled front seven, it will be a long day for Kessler, who has a penchant for holding onto the ball too long when he is feeling the heat.

Will Stanford test the Trojans for the first time this year?

NB: This Stanford team is going to test USC. Don’t let the week one loss to Northwestern fool you; this is still a well-coached team that knows how to win big games. In their past five contests, neither team has won by more than seven points and the Trojans have escaped as winners for two consecutive games, thanks to two Heidari field goals.

JD: This team is wildly inferior to the team USC upset in 2013 at the Coliseum. Shaw’s antiquated coaching style cost him the Rose Bowl against Michigan State and last year’s game against USC. They lack the playmakers (Tyler Gaffney, Ty Montgomery, Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck) that made the offense go, and on defense, while they are still stout, they lack the playmakers like Shayne Skov and Henry Anderson who made this team so dominant. The ground-and-pound game still works, but not if you couple it with other questionable coaching decisions that Shaw seems to make on a weekly basis.

DN: Stanford will test USC mentally but not physically. This Cardinal team is a solid Pac-12 team, but it has looked slow thus far this season while USC has been flying on cruise control. It will be good for the Trojans to finally face a credible opponent and from a game strategy and game management standpoint, Sarkisian’s team will have to learn to adjust to what opposing Pac-12 teams throw at them. However, this USC team is deep, explosive and a lot more confident than this Stanford team coming to the Coliseum this weekend. And with that, the Trojans will blow by Stanford.

LH: I think Stanford is a legitimate top 20 team nationally, and No. 6 is probably a little high for USC after two non-tests, but USC definitely has the edge. Before the season, I had this as my most concerning conference matchup for the Trojans, but the Northwestern loss has me second-guessing that. So yes, this is not the best Stanford team USC has faced in recent memory, but it will absolutely still be a test.