Metrics project Trojans as favorites to win Pac-12


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If you had to plot USC’s performance this season on a graph, it would be all over the place. The statistics do no better job of explaining the Trojans’ varied performance this year than any reasoning or logic. However, a close look at some of the numbers give some indication of what the Trojans need to focus on going forward to be successful.

With an overall record of 5-3, the Trojans fall short of both the AP Top 25 poll and the first top 25 poll from the College Football Playoff committee. Though not mathematically impossible, USC’s chances at making the national payoff are quite bleak.

But somehow, USC is ranked at No. 5 in ESPN’s football power index. With an FPI of 22.7, the Trojans trail only Ohio State, Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor in that poll, all of which, besides Oklahoma, are undefeated. It puts them ahead of Clemson and LSU, the two undefeated teams atop the CFP’s first poll, which have respective FPIs of 22.4 and 22.1.

The FPI gives USC a 33.2 percent chance of winning out the rest of the year and a 30.9 percent chance of winning the conference. Though ahead of No. 13 Stanford in the poll, which scored at 18.9 in the FPI, the Cardinal are listed as having a 51.2 percent chance of winning the Pac-12. Utah is the next up in the conference at No. 20 with a 15.0 FPI, followed by UCLA at No. 22 with a score of 14.7.

Utah leads the Trojans by a game in the conference standings, despite USC’s head-to-head win, and UCLA controls its own destiny for the conference championship because the Bruins also trail Utah by just a game but have yet to meet Utah head-to-head.

The poll, however, still has USC as the favorite out of the Pac-12 South to win the conference, with Utah having a 14.3 percent chance of winning the conference and UCLA having only a 3.2 percent chance.

If Utah loses one of its next four games, then the Trojans would control their own destiny because of their head-to-head win over Utah and their season finale with the Bruins, and the FPI doesn’t think either Utah or UCLA has a great shot of finishing the season undefeated.

The Utes are given only a 7 percent chance of winning out, and UCLA is given only a 3.2 percent chance of doing so.

The numbers must show something beyond the feel-good storyline that the Trojans are turning their season around behind interim coach Clay Helton after experiencing a lot of off-the-field issues in the first half of the season, which the committee members and AP voters are not oblivious to.

However, even if the Trojans are now a top-five team in the nation, the polls must reflect USC’s overall performance to some degree, and not just be a projection on future performance, so there should be some disparity between the projections and the rankings.

Nonetheless, the FPI numbers should give Trojan fans great confidence in USC’s chances of at least making a Rose Bowl this year.

Yes, there are four big tests left before then, plus some measures outside of the Trojans’ control. There’s no doubt USC will get up for the UCLA game, but even supreme motivator Ed Orgeron couldn’t get past them, and Clay Helton has to prove that he can keep the Trojans focused on all three of the lesser tests before then, including Arizona this weekend.

But when the Trojans are playing at their best, like they have been under Helton, they truly are one of the best teams in the country. The proof is in the numbers.