Will the Pac-12 be shorted in the CFP?


Saturday was about as good as it gets for USC football fans. The Trojans were clicking in all phases of the game, and are finally looking like they are living up to their full potential with such a talented roster.

While the win was a huge victory, and a great sign for the program going forward, there was one notable downside for the Trojans, or at least the conference: The Pac-12 might not have a seat in the conference championship anymore.

The chance to upset the No. 4 team in the country is obviously great. But with the loss, Washington fell to No. 6, out of a playoff spot. The win propelled USC up to No. 13, but the Trojans are still sitting on three overall loses. Colorado, Washington State and Utah, the other three conference representatives in the Top 25, are all sitting with two losses.

All in all, this could mark the second year in a row the conference does not have a representative in the College Football Playoff. It would be not because the conference isn’t strong or respected, but ironically because it is so deep from top to bottom that it’s almost impossible for a team to make it out of the conference slate unscathed and as a clear-cut favorite for the national title.

Last year, it was Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Michigan State that all emerged as the conference champions in the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten, respectively. Stanford was the Pac-12 champion, but had two losses on the season — a non-conference loss to Northwestern at the beginning of the season and one loss in conference to Oregon. That was enough to settle the decision for the selection committee, even though Stanford had looked strong all season. Sure enough, Stanford demolished the Big Ten’s representative, Iowa, in the Rose Bowl, while Michigan State and Oklahoma mustered very weak showings in their semifinal games against Clemson and the Tide.

The Huskies could very easily still make it back into the Top Four. The Apple Cup matchup with Washington State will actually be a great game for the first time I can remember — a far cry from when the two teams had a combined one win before their meeting at the end of the 2008 season.

If the Huskies can pull off a win this weekend against a .500 Arizona State team then cap off the season with a big rivalry win, they would still win the Pac-12 North and earn a spot in the conference championship game. Depending who they face in that matchup, they could have an opportunity for another big conference win — and possibly a redemption.

They could hypothetically still be on the outside looking in at that point. Alabama is as safe of a bet as there is in college football right now, they should easily hold on to their top spot in the standings — especially with a non conference cupcake against Chattanooga this weekend as a nice, quasi-bye week before Iron Bowl.

Both Michigan and Ohio State currently sit ahead of the Huskies, but that won’t last. Those two now both have a loss, and both will be going head to head before the end of the year. Unlike if they were both still undefeated, there’s no way both of them make it to the playoff. I can only imagine how crazy of a game that will be between two ultimate rivals.

The real challenge will be with Clemson and Louisville. Louisville’s only loss right now is to the Tigers, and have otherwise been flawless in the ACC. Clemson not only has their marquee win over Louisville, but has a really bad loss to Pittsburgh. Because of the head to head win, Clemson would take the divisional title in the ACC Atlantic Division — Clemson and Louisville are in the same division. So hypothetically, Clemson could win out, win the ACC Championship game and cement a playoff spot, while Louisville could still slip into the fourth and final spot.

The Big 12 will likely be the odd conference out this year — as it was during the first CFP. No team out of the conference has less than two loses at the moment. The question for Pac-12 fans is if the ACC can slip in two.

The chances of anyone other than Washington jumping into the playoff with a conference championship is unlikely. Washington State would still be at two loses even if they beat Washington and won the conference title game.

For USC, it’s almost a mathematical impossibility to jump into the playoff. But the Trojans’ path to the conference championship is actually very feasible at this point. If Washington State can beat Colorado this weekend, that would leave us in a three-way tie with Utah atop the division. Then if Colorado beats Utah in the final week of the year, we would have the head to head over Colorado to claim the title. If Washington State can’t help us out though, then the Utah vs. Colorado game will be a de facto play in for the championship game. Either Colorado would finish as the only one-loss team in conference play, or Utah would have the head to head tiebreaker over USC and Colorado.

This hypothetical, of course, is all dependent on the Trojans taking care of business against UCLA. This was the exact kind of game head coach Clay Helton was hired to win, and he needs to make sure the win over Washington doesn’t distract or get to the heads of any players on the road in a rivalry game.

When former Athletic Director Pat Haden promoted Helton to the full time head after a win over UCLA last year, but before the Pac-12 title game, it drew some criticism. Helton helped put away a lot of that this past Saturday with his first marquee win. Fox Sport’s Gus Johnson reminded viewers of Haden’s words on the broadcast as the clock ticked towards zero.

“And for the record, Pat Haden was right, Clay Helton is the coach of USC,” Johnson said.

It’s maybe a tad early for that superlative after just one head-to-head win for Helton over Washington head coach Chris Petersen. There’s a lot of football left in the Pac-12 slate. Heck, the two just might get a rematch before the season is over.

But so far, Helton sure is looking more and more like the right guy for the long run. He may have cost the Pac-12 a spot in the playoff this year, but he’ll hopefully add another Pac-12 contender to the mix for years to come.

Luke Holthouse is a senior majoring in policy, planning and development and print and digital journalism. His column, “Holthouse Party,” runs on Wednesday.