Football welcomes Oregon for pivotal matchup

Despite the Trojans’ up-and-down start, the opportunity to end this season with success remains within grasp. Sitting atop the Pac-12 South at 5-3, USC has a chance to earn a spot in the Pac-12 Championship and potentially even a Rose Bowl berth.

The Trojans’ biggest remaining hurdle comes this weekend in the form of a one-loss Oregon Ducks squad that’s ranked No. 7 in the country. Oregon enters the Coliseum with a seven-game win streak and will look to continue on its path toward a potential playoff berth. Saturday’s game could define the remainder of the season for both teams.

USC Offense vs Oregon Defense

For three weeks, we’ve watched the Trojan offense turn in mixed performances, playing at a completely different level from quarter to quarter and game to game. Against Oregon, that must change.

USC’s run game is in a compromised situation with all three of its primary backs out with injury. Freshman Kenan Christon has been carrying the load for USC since, and although the speedster has been exciting when given the opportunity to run the ball, it seems unlikely that he’ll get many chances to do so on Saturday. In his first game as a starter last week at Colorado, Christon was given only 10 carries.

The Trojans face an Oregon defense that allows only 103 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry, so look for them to put this game on the shoulders of freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis. Oregon’s defense is most vulnerable to the pass — evidenced by the 406 yards it gave up to WSU last week — and the Trojans will need to attack through the air in order to put points on the board.

Despite some hiccups, Slovis has played very well down the stretch, especially late in games. He’ll have to capitalize on advantageous matchups downfield with his elite corps of receivers against a talented but inconsistent Oregon secondary — the outcome of the game will likely depend on it. In particular, look for wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to have a big game; the sophomore has been lacking targets for the past few weeks, and with Oregon likely to double-team senior wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., this might just be St. Brown’s day.

Oregon Offense vs USC Defense

The Ducks are led by senior quarterback Justin Herbert, considered by many a lock to be a top 10 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Herbert has gotten off to an efficient start this season, throwing for 2,104 yards and 21 touchdowns against only a single interception. The Oregon signal-caller has a big arm and the ability to make tough throws to every level of the field — the Trojan secondary will have its hands full on Saturday.

However, Oregon will be missing its leading receiver in catches, yards and touchdowns in senior tight end Jacob Breeland, who was injured during the team’s Oct. 11 win over Colorado. The Ducks lack a clear No. 1 receiver in his absence. With the return of freshman cornerback Chris Steele and the improved health of cornerbacks sophomore Olaijah Griffin and redshirt freshman Isaac-Taylor Stuart, the Trojans should have their best cornerbacks ready to play, giving them a chance to limit Oregon’s passing attack.

On the ground, the Ducks are a capable team, rushing for 190 yards per game behind a committee of talented backs. The Trojans will have to be stout up front on defense to have any chance at limiting them; but the return of a healthy redshirt senior defensive lineman Christian Rector and potentially even sophomore inside linebacker Palaie Gaoteote IV will be a huge boost to the team’s front seven. It’ll be imperative for the Trojans to both limit Oregon’s running game and get pressure on Herbert. 

Prediction: 35-31, USC

For weeks now, I’ve had the strangest suspicion that USC will find a way to surprise Oregon at home, and now only days away from the game, it still feels right. The Trojans have an odd tendency to find ways to win at home in the Coliseum, and with so much on the line, they’ll certainly come into the game as motivated as they’ve been all year. Herbert has had trouble in the past in tough road environments, and the loss of his leading receiver certainly won’t help.

This feels like the perfect trap game for Oregon. The Trojans are a team built to give the Ducks trouble, especially if Slovis can play his best. I expect a huge upset here for the Trojans — one that could put them in the driver’s seat for a berth in the Pac-12 title game.