Plenty is up in the air concerning USC’s postseason


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Head coach Andy Enfield’s team is no guarantee for March Madness, but last week’s wins over Arizona and ASU have put USC in a favorable position heading into Saturday’s matchup with UCLA and the Pac-12 Tournament. (James Wolfe | Daily Trojan)

Entering Saturday’s tilt against UCLA with a 10-7 conference record, head coach Andy Enfield and the USC men’s basketball team are aiming for their first March Madness appearance since 2017. While the Trojans are more likely than not to make the tournament, nothing is guaranteed with a matchup against UCLA and the Pac-12 Tournament on the horizon.

Prominent bracketologists such as ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and NCAA.com’s Andy Katz currently have USC seeded as No. 11 and No. 8 in the NCAA Tournament respectively, but provided how often the Trojans’ projected seeding has fluctuated throughout the course of the season, Lunardi and Katz’s projections offer little security for the Trojan faithful.

After USC’s 2-5 start to February, the Trojans were predicted by many bracketologists to make the tournament as a “First Four” team, meaning they would have to win a play-in game to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament’s field of 64. 

However, thanks to its recent victories over Arizona and Arizona State, USC dug itself out of that First Four hole and is now projected to make the tournament by a bevy of analysts including the ones mentioned above. 

This is subject to change, however, based on USC’s performance during its next two — to potentially five — games. Should USC lose two in a row — to UCLA and in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament — the odds of making the March Madness bracket would diminish significantly. 

TeamRankings.com, which runs thousands of computer simulations of March Madness seeding selections, currently gives USC a 57% chance to make the tournament and a 5% chance to secure an automatic bid by winning the Pac-12 Tournament.

Before USC’s game against Arizona last Thursday, the Trojans were 8-7 in the Pac-12, had just suffered bad losses to Colorado and Utah and were falling fast in their hunt for a first-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament.

But USC’s back-to-back wins have provided the Trojans a boost from the likes of a First Four bubble team to a team that looks poised to make the Tournament and skip that play-in altogether. 

USC is currently in a four-way tie with Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona for third place in the Pac-12 conference. By virtue of an 0-2 season series with Colorado, the Trojans would lose that tiebreaker, but the scenarios involving the other two teams get tricky. 

There are several possible situations the Trojans could find themselves in after Saturday’s game. Oregon and UCLA have secured first rounds byes, but the other two byes are up for grabs between the four tied teams.

USC will get a bye if USC, Arizona State and Arizona all win. USC gets a bye if it and no more than one other team (it does not matter which) wins. Finally, if USC loses to UCLA, there is still hope for the Trojans to secure a bye: If Arizona and Colorado both also lose and Oregon loses to Stanford, USC will skip the first round. However, if all four teams lose, USC will have to play in the first round Wednesday.

A first-round bye could do wonders for the Trojans. If they were to finish the regular season as a No. 5 seed, they would have to get through the first round Wednesday night before turning around to face off against the likely No. 4 seed the very next day.

On the other hand, if the Trojans sneak into that No. 4 seed, they would be afforded an extra day of rest and would wait to face the winner of a matchup between the No. 5 seed and the conference’s No. 12 seed — or the winner of No. 6 vs No. 11 if they steal the No. 3 seed.

Under these circumstances, the Trojans’ path to the later rounds of the Pac-12 Tournament would be much more manageable, putting them in a strong position to secure an invitation to the Big Dance. And, if the Trojans knock off UCLA and secure the first-round bye, they may already be essentially locked in, even in the event of a first-round loss to a solid opponent such as Colorado. 

USC’s postseason picture will certainly look much clearer after Saturday and again after the Pac-12 Tournament. The NCAA March Madness Selection Show is March 15 at 3 p.m. on CBS.

Nathan Ackerman contributed to this report.