Safe play calling is not USC’s problem

Rick Neuheisel offered the most interesting prediction  I heard of USC’s game this past Saturday. It was interesting not because he pretty much hit the nail on the head with his projected result, but because of the explanation he offered behind it and the fact that he offered it a week in advance.

On the Pac-12 Network’s postgame show immediately after USC thumped Colorado for a 56-28 win two Saturdays ago, the former UCLA head coach and current TV analyst said he was worried the USC defense would not be able to hold on next week against Utah.

Why? Because USC’s offensive play calling against Colorado was too aggressive.

You read that right. Not too conservative; too aggressive.

Not only did Utah have a solid offense, but the high altitude at Utah’s stadium would also test USC’s weak depth on defense. The battered unit could have had a trip to the spa the week before to ensure everyone was well rested and recovered in time for a crucial conference game, but the defense actually spent a lot of time on the field against Colorado. Instead of chewing up a lot of the clock with a methodical, slow-and-steady run game on offense, the Trojans went with more of a quick-strike aerial assault, scoring seven of their eight touchdowns on the night from passes.

Though it was a record-breaking night for redshirt junior Cody Kessler, as his seven TDs were more than any USC quarterback had ever thrown in a single game, Neuheisel concluded that USC had a much greater chance of running out of gas next week on defense.

Sure enough, the Trojans surrendered touchdowns to the Utes on two of Utah’s last three possessions — including their final drive that ended with eight seconds left in the game — and USC fell by a final score of 24-21.

Now whether or not USC’s defense would have stopped Utah on the final drive if it had played less against Colorado is impossible to answer. But the only other comparable two-week stretch gives a very good clue.

If we rewind back to Week 1, the final score of USC’s season opener would imply that the Trojan offense was marginally less dominant against Fresno State than it was against Colorado — the Trojans beat the Bulldogs by a final score of 52-13. But looking deeper within the box score shows that the opposite is true.

The key stat is time of possession. USC had the ball for 38:54, while Fresno had the ball for 21:06. Against Colorado, the time of possession numbers almost flipped, as USC only had the ball for 24:03 while the Trojan defense was on the field for 35:57. Instead of 17:48 time of possession advantage, the Trojans had an 11:54 possession deficit.

Part of that has to do with the turnover margin. Fresno State threw four interceptions while Colorado only gave away possession twice. But the Trojans lost two fumbles against the Bulldogs, leaving their turnover margin at +2 for the game, and only lost one against the Buffaloes, leaving them +1 for that game. One extra possession does not explain the issues of possession.

What does explain it is play calling. USC had 64 rushing attempts against Fresno State to only 41 attempted passes. That’s 61 percent of plays staying on the ground. Against Colorado, the ratio was 33 rush attempts to 28 passes, or 54 percent staying on the ground. It’s not a huge difference, but it’s definitely noticeable. One is a lot closer to a 50/50 split; one could almost pass as two out of three.

What makes a huge difference is the total number of plays in the two blowouts. USC set a Pac-12 record by running 105 plays against Fresno State. As fun as it was to watch Kessler set his individual record, the Trojans only ran 61 plays against the Buffaloes. The team accomplishment was much more impressive and significant than the individual mark, especially considering the outcome of the respective games that followed the record-breakers.

Though frustrated USC fans might have forgotten, there was a time when the Trojan defense came up big at the end of a one-possession game.

It was during the Stanford game in Week 2, back when everyone was still really excited about USC football.

I wrote after the game that there was plenty of luck involved in that win, and it easily could have ended in defeat. But after holding tight against the Cardinal all game, a forced fumble from senior linebacker J.R. Tavai on the Cardinal’s final drive sealed the 13-10 win.

To me, it is absolutely no coincidence the defense came into Stanford well rested from the week before and held on to win, but came into Utah after a relatively long game and fell just short at the finish line. The USC defense held Utah without an offensive touchdown through almost three quarters before the Utes’ late comeback. Yes, Utah got to face the Trojan defense much later in the season so injuries have added up. But the prior week still matters.

These two nailbiters provided even more interesting proof. USC held on against Stanford despite a 26:13 to 33:47 possession deficit. The Trojans had 37 rush attempts and 22 pass attempts; that’s 63 percent of plays staying on the ground. Time of possession was essentially even against Utah, with the Trojans having possession 29:41 and the Utes holding the ball 30:19. But the play calling from the Trojans was pretty close to even, too, with 37 rush attempts and 33 pass attempts. That adds up to only 53 percent of the plays staying on the ground.

There have been plenty who have questioned coach Steve Sarkisian’s play calling this year, saying he needs to stop settling for the safe run play on offense and start throwing more deep balls. I couldn’t disagree more.

The “bend, don’t break” defensive scheme and the generally conservative offensive style is not inherently flawed. In fact, I think it’s absolutely the best strategy for this USC team given its severe lack of depth. If anything, breaking away from that philosophy is what really caused the Trojans to lose this weekend. Was Sarkisian “playing it safe” when he called a pass play to Jahleel Pinner on third-and-two from Utah’s 28-yard-line instead of running it up the middle? In 20/20 hindsight, the incomplete pass stopped the clock and a run play would have forced Utah to use a crucial timeout, which might have been the difference. But from the replay, we can see it was a perfectly valid play call, and Kessler had a wide open receiver on the play, but he just missed the throw.

I think people really dislike the conservative mentality because it’s just not as fun to watch, not for any strategic reason. Playing conservatively, though, is not inherently boring. If you disagree, you’re probably a bandwagon fan anyway, and you should start pretending your favorite team is Baylor. You can have your 56-28 win over Colorado, I’ll take my 13-10 victory over Stanford any day.

My conclusion here is not that we should fire Steve Sarkisian and hire Rick Neuheisel. Sarkisian is doing just fine. I have total faith in him for the near future and I think he’s the right man for the job. He hasn’t disproven that on the sideline yet. He has proven that on the recruiting trail, and you’re still not a better play caller than him.

Luke Holthouse is a sophomore majoring in broadcast and digital journalism and policy, planning and development. His column, “Holthouse Party,” runs Wednesdays.