COLUMN: Easy start worth it before marathon
So apparently the Sun Belt isn’t that good. Maybe if either Arkansas State or Idaho had home-field advantage, it would have been different. One of them could have held USC under 50 points, or gotten to double digits themselves. But probably not.
Now the Trojans move into the exciting part of the schedule. With all due respect to the Red Wolves and Vandals, this is the part that will actually determine USC’s role in postseason play.
Finally, a real game.
As fellow Daily Trojan columnist Regan Estes discussed Tuesday, the excitement of it goes beyond the usual anticipation for the start of in-conference competition. It’s grown to be one of the best recent rivalries in the sport, and despite Stanford’s fall from the AP Poll’s top 25, this is a legitimate challenge for the Trojans.
Though certainly less interesting, I think it was worthwhile for USC to schedule two pretty soft games. I think those two scheduling decisions will pay off greatly in USC’s quest for a College Football Playoff spot, especially considering the immediate future of the Pac-12 and when comparing it to USC’s 2016 non-conference schedule.
Stanford is the official start of a long haul for USC. Eight of USC’s 10 remaining games feature opponents that either ranked or have received votes in the AP Poll. The exceptions are Washington and Colorado, but those look more like traps than cupcakes.
The Pac-12 hasn’t looked great so far this season, but it’s still arguably the deepest conference in the NCAA, simply because no conference so far can really be called “the toughest.”
The Big Ten currently has the most momentum right now. The defending national champions received 59 first place votes, and Michigan State received the other two in the AP Poll after beating now No. 12 Oregon. But beyond that, the conference’s top 25 representation only includes No. 23 Northwestern and No. 24 Wisconsin.
The SEC had a really rough weekend, with Arkansas falling from the top 25 after a loss to Toledo and Auburn needing overtime to stave off Jacksonville State.
The other big inter-conference matchup was Oklahoma of the Big 12 taking down Tennessee of the SEC.
That leaves Ohio State at No. 1 and Michigan State at No. 4, Alabama leading the SEC at No. 2, TCU and Baylor representing the Big 12 at No. 3 and No. 5, respectively, and USC at No. 6. The ACC still has Florida State in the top 10 at No. 9, the lowest of any top-ranked Power Five team. At this point, independent Notre Dame is still worth a mention at No. 8, but I don’t think the Irish will last.
If at the end of the year, the five conference winners have equal overall records, the odd man out will probably be the ACC winner. The only thing we can really bet on, though, is that the Big Ten winner will almost certainly not be left out of the CFP. The winner between Michigan State and Ohio State will have to have a spot over a Pac-12 team given how high-profile that Michigan State-Oregon matchup was. But the Pac-12 winner is still more likely to take one of those bottom spots over the ACC winner — though don’t sleep on No. 11 Clemson in the discussion.
Here’s where scheduling becomes interesting. Aside from the Notre Dame tradition, USC didn’t add any big time non-conference games this year, but the 2016 Cowboy Classic between USC and Alabama will absolutely qualify as one. Oregon went for the latter approach the past two seasons with its Michigan State home-and-home, which obviously backfired to some degree this year.
Personally, from the standpoint of a partisan fan hoping to see his favorite team in the playoffs, I don’t think scheduling that extra non-conference challenge is worth the risk. I’d say the odds of winning those games are, for all intents and purposes, a 50-50 shot, but a crucial loss is more damaging than a trademark win is beneficial.
Oregon probably would have still made the playoff last year if its win over Michigan State was instead an FCS win. The Pac-12 conference schedule is strong enough to stand alone. Now, the Ducks have no margin for error the rest of the season, and the Spartans still have to win their conference for it to matter. If the Spartans or the 2016 Trojans end up with one more loss than the other conference winner, one extra big win won’t counter that extra loss.
Thankfully, USC made it through the first two weeks still intact. Not just in regard to its record, but also its roster, because the risk of significant injury drops in those games. Down the road, as the team — still not up to full scholarship capacity, by the way — fights its way to the finish line of conference play, we’ll be thankful USC didn’t make it any harder on itself than needed.
So in the future, I don’t hope to watch any USC games against non-Power Five conferences. They’re quite boring and leave little room for interesting commentary.
But I do hope USC schedules them anyway. Yes, the Cowboy Classic would be a fun annual tradition, but that’s what Notre Dame is for. The revenue will take care of itself, and the Trojans will hopefully be back to being good enough that winning the conference is the only necessary statement.
If we do get an annual rivalry game going with a Sun Belt team, let’s do it with Troy University. “The Trojan War” could totally earn a national primetime spot.
Luke Holthouse is a junior majoring in policy, planning and development and broadcast and digital journalism. His column, “Holthouse Party,” runs Wednesdays.