The Bottom Line: Duke and Zion will dominate in March


Whenever I make my bracket for March Madness, I typically over-analyze every statistic to determine the winning team. In the past, I’ve looked at factors like the team’s free-throw percentage, rebounding and age to settle on my winning pick. But this year is different. The ACC tournament showed that Zion Williamson transcends college basketball. Duke will win. The bottom line? Stars win championships.

This year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament has some intriguing matchups that will determine who will participate in the Final Four. Some regions on paper will be tougher than others.

In particular, the Midwest appears to be the toughest region in this year’s tournament. North Carolina headlines the division as the one seed, but it also features major college basketball powerhouses in Kentucky and Kansas, as well as sleeper teams like fifth seed Auburn.

One of the hottest teams in the country, Auburn is now in the spotlight after winning the SEC Tournament. In the past, teams coming into March with momentum generally continue to ride the wave in the tournament. Moreover, Seton Hall, a No. 10 seed, narrowly lost to defending champion Villanova in the Big East tournament.

It’s dangerous to pick a team from the east as the winner of the tournament because there are many capable of coming out of it. This region is just too good, and will be a total grind for whoever wins it. While North Carolina has had an impressive season with major victories and an elite coach, I opted for Auburn to win out of this region. It easily beat Tennessee in the SEC final — momentum I think they will carry forward.

The South Region also has a good mixture of some top-seeded teams and sleepers, including Virginia, which headlines the group as the top seed. It recently lost to Florida State by 10 points in the ACC tournament, but it has had a strong season, only losing three times this season.

On the other side, Tennessee can definitely make a run as the No. 2 seed. The team lost to Auburn by 20 points in the SEC finals, but defeated Kentucky the day before. Experience is an important factor in the tournament. Its starting lineup against Auburn consisted of three juniors and two seniors.

Barring an upset, these two teams in Tennessee and Virginia are likely to face off in the Elite Eight. While the game might end up being close, Virginia has been one of the best teams all season and are desperate to make amends for its loss last year in the first round of the tournament as the No. 1 team in the country.

As the weakest link, the West is up for grabs. No. 1 seed Gonzaga recently lost to St. Mary’s in the West Conference Tournament finals by scoring just 46 points. While they beat Duke earlier in the season, the Bulldogs have upset potential written all over them. In the second round, Gonzaga will potentially face Syracuse, which also defeated the Blue Devils this season, and I predict a Syracuse win.

The West Region also contains last season’s runner-up in the tournament, No. 2 Michigan. Many Michigan players have good tournament experience, and the program has an elite tournament pedigree. While potential matchups between No. 7 Nevada and No. 3 Texas Tech may be tricky, Michigan’s experience from last year should give the team an edge and help it reach the  Final Four again.

The East appears to be No. 1 Duke’s. The bottom half of the region features the three teams that could upset Duke in No. 2 Michigan State, No. 3 LSU and No. 7 Louisville. Ultimately, Michigan State will probably claw its way into the Elite Eight after getting past Bradley, Louisville and then LSU, but will run out of steam against Duke.

That leaves a Final Four of Duke vs. Michigan and Virginia vs. Auburn. Duke’s easy run in the West Region makes them the favorite against Michigan. Ultimately the team has more stars on the court in RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Zion Williamson, and they should beat the Wolverines comfortably in that game.

The match between Virginia and Auburn is a harder one to pick. While Auburn has been doing well recently, Virginia is still recovering from a disappointing ACC Championship Tournament. However, Auburn has a tough run just to get into the Final Four and is by no means a lock to get out of the Midwest. In recent years, Virginia has had an elite team, but it has failed to deliver in the tournament. This year is its time to change people’s minds.

My final prediction is that Duke and Virginia will face each other in the final round. Both teams have played each other twice this year and have split the series with one win a piece. However, on the big stage in the ACC tournament with everyone watching, Zion Williamson came up big and put up tremendous numbers on both sides of the floor. True stars shine the brightest in the biggest games, and ultimately, Zion Williamson will carry Duke to yet another championship.

Robby Aronson is a sophomore writing about sports. His column, “The Bottom Line,” runs every other Wednesday.