USC appears primed for deep postseason run despite abnormal season

The Trojans haven’t made it past the second round of the NCAA Tournament in over a decade— so how do their odds stack up this year? It’s been a roller coaster of a season for this squad, led by head coach Andy Enfield, but there is a chance this team could make a deep run in the 68-team dance starting in two weeks.

March Madness will look particularly odd this year, and not just because of the abnormal pandemic circumstances forcing teams to play all of their games in one state. The only college basketball dynasties to have eclipsed 2,000 wins— blue blood programs such as Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and UNC— played uncharacteristically mediocre, and in some cases plain bad, basketball this year, resulting in Kansas and UNC at Chapel Hill as the only teams likely to make the tournament as the No. 3 and No. 10 seeds, respectively.  

With the perennial powerhouses of March unlikely to make much of an impact this postseason, the future is brighter and the stakes are higher for teams who aren’t so accustomed to making the tournament. For USC, these circumstances might offer the team the perfect chance to up their program’s reputation on a national stage and make some history.

What the experts predict

Bracketology is not an actual science, yet entire sports analysts’ careers are centered on the subject. What bracketologists predict for the Trojans varies, but all put a notable degree of faith in a team that has seldom had an impact on the national basketball landscape in recent years. 

When USC went on a 7-0 run in early February it earned its highest tournament projection as a No. 4 seed. However, the team’s recent downward trend shifted its national narrative. 

The Pac-12 has struggled to establish national relevancy in college hoops this year, and USC’s recent slate of losses marred its chances at a high seed that would’ve likely provided the team an easier route through the tournament’s early rounds.

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm most recently projected the Trojans as a No. 7 seed. As a No. 7 seed, the Trojans would match up in the first round against a No. 10 seed. Historically, No. 10 teams have a weaker win rate, but in the last tournament played, only one No. 7 made it past the first round of the tournament. 

Even if USC survives a potentially bracket-busting first round, they’ll face a rough road to the Sweet 16. The Trojans would possibly have to go through a No. 2 seed and No. 3 seed to see the quarterfinals, and this program doesn’t have a favorable history when it comes to nationally ranked contenders. 

ESPN’s college basketball analyst Joe Lunardi had a more favorable outlook on USC’s postseason positioning, but only as a No. 6 seed. No one will forget Loyola-Marymount’s 11th-seeded run to the final four — that all started with a defeat over then No. 6 Miami. Overall, this first round matchup has historically proven to be pretty volatile, with 37.1% ending in upsets since 1985. 

Even if the Trojans make it past the first round they will still have their work cut out for them, with possible games against current No. 11 Florida-State and a dominant current No. 8 Alabama. With all of these threats awaiting the Trojans no matter where they are seeded, the momentum going into this tournament will prove to be key in what could be a program-defining run.

USC’s Key Players

These last two weeks have proven freshman forward Evan Mobley cannot single-handedly carry this team to victories, even in the Pac-12. If the Trojans look to stand a chance in the big

dance, it’s time to tap into their talented roster. 

Against Utah last week, junior guard Drew Peterson was a catalyst — sparking a lackluster offense and racking up 19 points while going 8-15 from the field. His overall scoring average might not reflect it, but Peterson has the talent and skill necessary to dig USC out of deficits and help the team regain offensive efficiency during scoring slumps.

Redshirt senior guard Tahj Eaddy is this team’s man from beyond the arc. With the most 3-pointers of any Trojan this season, Eaddy gives depth to the offense when Mobley is shut down inside. The guard now consistently puts up double digits for the Trojans, and tapping into his sharp shooting will be necessary to keep up with some of the most efficient offenses in the country.

It all comes down to Saturday

UCLA offers USC one last opportunity to establish some momentum heading into the postseason. The Trojans’ dominant win against Stanford Wednesday night was just what USC needed to keep its Pac-12 title chances alive. USC held the Trees to just 25% shooting, an impressive defensive outing that could serve as a blueprint on Saturday.

UCLA runs an efficient offense, but their Wednesday night loss to Oregon proved the Bruins can crumble under tight defensive pressure. The Trojans may have snapped out of their late-season lull at just the right moment to face their crosstown rival, and a win on Saturday can propel this team to its first regular season conference title since 1985.