Soccer in the States: Men’s National Team can’t lose focus in its next games


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As I reflect on the state of the United States Men’s National Team in its quest to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, an iconic press conference quote from the late Kobe Bryant after going up 2-0 in the 2009 NBA Finals circulates in my mind: “What’s there to be happy about? Job’s not finished.”

Couldn’t have said it better myself. 

It would be really easy for the U.S. to revel in its 2021 CONCACAF dominance: a 3-0 record against Mexico, a Nations League trophy and a Gold Cup trophy. But that is exactly what could cost this team. 

If the U.S. is notorious for anything, it’s playing to the level of its competition, for better or for worse (most of the time, for worse). The team plays three fixtures in the upcoming international break — home against El Salvador, away against Canada and home against Honduras. 

To put itself in a secure position to qualify, I estimate the USMNT needs at least 6 points from this window. That would see them at 21 points with just three more games to go. Depending on how things shake up with other teams, the U.S. has a chance to all but secure qualification by the end of this international break.

There’s no reason to believe this will be easy — the U.S. got just 5 points from the reverse fixtures of its upcoming three matchups. But there are a few key differences that could favor the U.S. the second time around.

The U.S. is 3-0-1 (W-L-T) at home and 1-1-2 away in the qualifying campaign so far. If you’ve been watching the team, you would know that away games in CONCACAF are some of the most challenging conditions for a team to play in. Away losses are going to happen, but it’s what you do at home that can cement your status at a top team in the Octagon. The team’s two home games this international break are against the bottom two teams in the group. Better yet, El Salvador and Honduras have combined for just 2 points in all of their away games throughout the campaign. It’s a huge opportunity for the U.S. to take advantage of underperforming teams in the States. Dare I say wins should be expected? 

The next difference comes from a singular player. Canada star winger Alphonso Davies won’t be available for the upcoming international break. Davies is not only Canada’s best player, but possibly the best player in CONCACAF period. In 13 games of World Cup Qualifying in his career, he has 5 goals and 8 assists. His assist led to Canada’s goal against the U.S. in the reverse fixture, where Canada stole points from the U.S. with a draw. 

The U.S. is catching a break heading into the game against Canada, as the injured Davies is one less threat to worry about defensively. But again, the USMNT can’t get caught sleeping here — this is still the best team Canada has fielded in decades, as it’s on track to qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 1986. Striker Cyle Larin scored the goal against the U.S. in the reverse fixture, and he also had two huge goals in Canada’s shock win over Mexico Nov. 16. Winger Tajon Buchanan is another attacking threat whose pace and dribbling ability will challenge the U.S. fullbacks. 

A good result in the away game could see the U.S. return to the top of the Octagon, assuming the team takes care of El Salvador Jan. 27. I’m willing to make a bet here: If the USMNT wins away at Canada Jan. 30, it will go on to qualify for the World Cup. The stakes couldn’t be higher. 

Now that we’ve looked at the fixtures, let’s talk about expectations. I’ve been hellbent on this team just making the World Cup in any way possible, no matter how scrappy and no matter the method (automatic or playoff qualification). But allow me to move the goalposts in saying that the U.S. should, at a minimum, finish top three in the Octagon and avoid the fourth place playoff. Why, you ask? Just look at the standings as of now, one thing stands out: the gap between fourth and fifth place is 5 points. That’s a substantial cushion for the top 4 teams to work with. It’s not out of the question, but it’s looking more and more unlikely that one of the top four will drop out. 

The last thing that the U.S. needs is to leave its chances at qualification up to a singular game. Not only would that be a detriment to the mental health of fans everywhere, it’s just a little embarrassing. As one of the top dogs in CONCACAF, it should be an expectation that the U.S. can achieve automatic qualification, not a bonus. 

If you’ve ever read this column before, you would know I’m not a USMNT-positivist. I tend to expect the worst, it makes the disappointment sting less. Let me make it clear that I wouldn’t be shifting my expectations if I didn’t truly think the U.S. was in a good spot. That being said, the next three games could make or break the qualifying campaign. If there was ever a time to tune into the USMNT, it’s now. 

Adam Jasper is a sophomore providing updates on the U.S. Men’s National Team and its road to qualifying for the World Cup as well as general soccer news. His column “Soccer in the States,” runs every other Thursday. He is also a sports editor at the Daily Trojan.