Back the Pac: Oregon needs to win out to make the NCAA Tournament


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The Pac-12’s chances at securing a fourth bid in the NCAA Tournament took a major hit when Oregon lost its third game to a team with a losing record.

The Ducks lost to Arizona State, a team that put up only 29 points against Washington State back in December. This is not a good look for what is clearly the conference’s fourth best team.

UCLA, Arizona and USC have set themselves apart from the pack, but the conference can still sneak in a fourth team to make the NCAA Tournament. Washington State, Colorado and Stanford were potential suitors but have largely fallen out of the conversation in recent weeks.

The Pac-12’s last hope lies with Oregon and that glimmer of hope is hanging by a thread.

The Ducks need to win the rest of their games and might even need to win the Pac-12 Tournament if they want to have any shot at cracking the tournament field. 

To understand where Oregon stands in the national landscape, we need to go through a quick recap of the up and down season of the Ducks.

One of Oregon’s first games of the season was a 32-point loss to BYU. From then, the Ducks proceeded to free fall to 6-6 on the season with other disappointing losses to the Cardinal and Sun Devils.

Head Coach Dana Altman, as he does year after year, fixed most of Oregon’s issues and led the Ducks to six wins in a row, including
match-ups over No. 3 UCLA and No. 5 USC. A combined 44 points from senior guard Will Richardson across those two games helped the Ducks get back on track, and everything seemed to be looking up for the team.

Oregon could not hold on to that momentum for much longer, though, as it went just 5-4 in its last nine games. The loss to No. 3 Arizona can be forgiven but losses to abysmal UC Berkeley and Arizona State teams should be more than cause for concern. Those losses just might hold the Ducks out of the tournament.

Oregon now has an overall record of 17-10 and 10-6 in conference play. That record could be barely enough to get into March Madness, but the Ducks need to bank on their big wins to carry them to the Big Dance.

Oregon is currently sitting at No. 67 in the NET rankings, the main metric the NCAA Selection Committee uses to choose the March Madness field. With two Quad 1 wins and four Quad 2 wins, the Ducks have a resume worthy of making the field. Zero losses to Quad 4 teams helps as well.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi sees Oregon’s appeal despite recent shortcomings. Lunardi has the Ducks as one of his first eight teams out of the NCAA Tournament, which feels quite generous with how embarrassing Oregon’s recent play has been.

Oregon can add one more high quality win with its upcoming game against the Trojans, but that would hardly make up for the pitiful losses to the Sun Devils and Golden Bears. 

Those losses will follow the Ducks until Selection Sunday, which may end up being the difference maker for the selection committee.

That’s why the Ducks have to win the Pac-12 Championship — there seems to be no other way. 

Sure, Oregon should be feeling pretty good if it finishes as the
Pac-12’s runner-up or beats one or two of the conference’s top teams in the postseason before an early exit. That might nudge Oregon into the NCAA Tournament, but not a lot needs to happen for the Ducks to be on the outside looking in once again.

For that reason, Pac-12 fans need to be pulling for Oregon to win the conference tournament. That situation would ensure the conference’s fourth best team — and, outside of the locks for the tournament, the conference’s best shot at advancing in March Madness — makes the NCAA Tournament and with a decent seed for good measure. 

The Ducks have the potential, but Oregon will need to finally show what it’s capable of in this final stretch if they are to be offered a spot in the world’s greatest sporting event.

Matthew Andrade is a sophomore providing analysis on Pac-12 basketball in all its glory. His column, “Back the Pac,” runs every other Friday.