Heat Check: Final four comes to fruition
The postseason isn’t even halfway over, and we’ve already experienced some of the most breathtakingly, soul-crushingly beautiful moments in playoff history. Let’s check in on our four contenders, and see how even the most unlikely of squads can capture the trophy.
We’re nearly at the endgame now. With the New York Yankees’ 5-1 victory over the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday, the final Championship Series contender earned their spot at the table. The National League Champions Series kicked off on Tuesday night, with the Philadelphia Phillies besting the San Diego Padres, 2-0, largely thanks to a dominant performance from Phils starting pitcher Zach Wheeler and a 488-foot nuke off the bat of outfielder Kyle Schwarber. The American League Champions Series began a day later in Houston, marking the start of the battle for a spot in the World Series between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees.
Overall, I can’t say I’m upset with how my predictions turned out. On the American League side, my bracket remains perfect. The Cleveland Guardians (and Oscar Gonzalez) swept the Tampa Bay Rays in two games. I knew Tampa couldn’t handle Cleveland’s pitching staff, but I did not expect both teams to act like they were swinging broom handles at the plate. In the American League Division Series, Cleveland continued the late-game heroics, yanking a 2-1 series lead with a come-from-behind ninth inning walk off in Game 3. However, the Guardians ultimately struggled to put the Yankees away, losing their eleventh straight elimination game in the process.
Seattle Mariners fans, despite the ALDS sweep, probably would’ve been happy if the series went a mere inning. They were back in the postseason after two decades plus of disappointment and promptly swept their first October series over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Division Series against Houston turned out to be a different animal, with designated hitter Yordan Alvarez looking like a man possessed. Game 3 went the distance — lasting all of 18 innings before a solo shot from Houston shortstop Jeremy Peña finished the Astros sweep of Seattle.
I can’t really justify my National League picks. I could sit here and argue that it was unfair for the 101-win New York Mets to play in the Wild Card anway. Same goes for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, who should’ve just been given byes to the NLCS anyway, right? Unfortunately, I did not think the sub-90 win Padres and Phillies had that dog in them, and probably the most unlikely NLCS matchup we could have seen this year has arrived. As for my League Championship Series (and World Series) predictions, I expect nothing less than to go three-for-three.
Houston remains the top dog in the American League. Plain and simple. Pitch them your best, they will pitch better. Try to outslug them? Good luck. This year marks Houston’s sixth-straight ALCS appearance, an American League record. Third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve are great, but then there’s Alvarez, who remains the most dominant force left in this year’s postseason and, quite simply, a tier above everyone else. That’s including Aaron Judge, who’s paltry .738 OPS in the ALDS knocked him from the top spot. However, I see it coming down to the pitching staff. The Yankees 1-2 punch in Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes sure is nasty, but the bullpen is middling. The loss of Michael King months ago really put a hole in the middle relief spot, and New York has struggled to fill that role. Other than Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta, there’s not many I would trust. Over a seven game series, against one of the deepest offenses in the league? Sounds a bit too dicey. Give me Houston in six.
The Padres and Phillies matchup is perplexing. On one hand, super sluggers Juan Soto and Manny Machado could lead the Padres to victory. On the other hand, Phillies stars Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been on fire in the postseason. Decisions, decisions. Look, I expect this series to be an absolute slugfest, a far cry from what we saw in Game 1. Philly has the edge in starting pitching, although it is a strong point on both sides. But the bullpen slightly favors San Diego, with closer Josh Hader serving as the cherry on top. At the onset of the series, Fangraphs-generated playoff odds gave an ever-so-slight edge to the Friars, but why trust a computer simulation when I have something better: blind gut instinct. So give me Philadelphia in seven. Bryce Harper in Phillies colors, fighting in the World Series — my worst nightmare as a Washington Nationals fan.
Philadelphia vs. Houston. David vs. Goliath. To come so far is quite the accomplishment for the upstart Phils in their first postseason appearance in over a decade. However, it is sad to see how quickly they will be dispatched by Major League Baseball’s very own Godzilla. The Astros are built for any scenario. Throw out a team full of prime Barry Bonds, and they’d probably find a way to push it to six games. Alvarez, Bregman, Altuve and Peña can carry the load offensively, while the Houston bullpen tandem of Bryan Abreu, -Ryne Stanek and Ryan Pressly can shut them down in the later innings. As a result, I expect Houston to win the series in five games, emphatically securing Houston’s second title in franchise history, and their first since being busted for trash-can banging during their 2017 run. While the Braves stood against a similar juggernaut last year, they were a once-in-a-lifetime scenario. I mean, a red-hot NL East team can’t beat Houston in the World Series again, can it? Hey, who knows. It wouldn’t be the first time.
In my next column, the season will be nearing a close, knee-deep in the World Series, with the offseason and free agency looming overhead.
Dominic Varela is a sophomore writing about all things MLB as we enter the postseason. His column “Heat Check” runs every other Thursday.