The End Zone: USC’s playoffs hopes grow

The last time a PAC-12 program was among the 4 teams in the college football playoffs was Washington who lost against Alabama in 2016. Since then, the idea of a PAC-12 team making the playoffs was almost laughable — until this season. 

The PAC 12 now has 3 legitimate playoff contenders, with USC having the clearest path to success. 

Heading into this weekend, USC needed a lot of help, but now the opportunity is within reach for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans if they win out. 

Clemson’s loss to Notre Dame not only knocked the Tigers out of contention, but it boosted the resume of a struggling Notre Dame team before USC’s matchup against The Fighting Irish on November 26th. 

Further, Alabama, a team which was already on thin ice after losing to Tennessee in historic fashion, was defeated by LSU in a late- night thriller.

A two loss team has never made the college football playoffs, Alabama (7-2) won’t be the exception this season. 

When the Alabama-LSU game ended in the second quarter of the USC game, some fans in the coliseum started cheering, recognizing the Trojan’s elevated playoff status resulting from Alabama’s loss. 

The Trojans can safely look past this week’s game against a 1-7 Colorado team to their imminent showdown in the Rose Bowl against UCLA. Oregon will play Utah that week, in a double-header weekend which could feature two play-in games for the Pac-12 championship. 

If USC can survive November 19th’s test against the Bruins and win out, they will have an extremely convincing track record. Out of any outcome, USC as an 11-1 conference champion is the best shot at a PAC-12 playoff bid. Oregon and UCLA can justifiably hold playoff aspirations, but it will be difficult for either team to escape the stain of Oregon’s 49-3 loss to Georgia. 

The selection committee will balk at the idea of a Georgia-Oregon rematch given the first result. It will be difficult for Oregon to get in higher than a 4 seed to escape this reasoning, and Georgia is a huge favorite to be the 1 seed. UCLA is not directly connected to this loss, but they are indirectly by way of their loss to Oregon. 

USC is only stained by a one-point loss to Utah on the road, a fact the committee might be compelled to ignore given the Trojans’ strength of schedule and brand recognition.

There is definitely a bias towards larger programs, and a Trojan team led by Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams fighting for a national championship game that is going to be played at SoFi stadium is very marketable.

Still, returning to earth, there is a long road ahead. The Trojans must win their next 4 games, of which, 3 will be against ranked opponents unless Notre Dame loses another game. 

Then, cards must fall in the Trojans’ favor, clearing enough teams to make room for what would be an 11-1 Pac-12 championship team.

Barring anything outrageous, Georgia, along with the winner of Ohio State-Michigan (assuming they win the conference) has a playoff spot secured. Among the teams vying for the final 2 spots, TCU currently has the best odds with an undefeated record in the Big 12. The losers of Michigan-Ohio State, along with Mississippi and Tennessee in the SEC, are also still at large. 

Other notable outcomes include Mississippi or LSU beating Georgia in the SEC championship, which would likely result in two SEC teams in the CFP.

USC fans should root for Georgia to win out, for Oregon to win out until they (hopefully) face the Trojans in the Pac-12 championship, and for TCU To lose. 

This is a brief summation of a few out of hundreds of possible outcomes, and largely rests upon a shaky assumption that top teams beat all of their unranked opponents.

Expect massive changes in the CFP rankings over the next few weeks which could land USC in the playoffs, out of playoff contention, or in another major bowl game. 

Taking a step back from the hypotheticals, USC was a 4-8 team last year that Lincoln Riley transformed into a playoff contender in one summer. It’s time to focus on winning Pac-12 championships again, and the playoff talk can come after. 

In any event, this is a season Trojan fans will remember for a long time, and certainly has the potential to begin to restore this historic program back to its former glory.