USC talks redistricting, voter priorities and “red wave”

Robert Shrum, the director of the Center for the Political Future, said that the Democratic party had the most successful midterm elections for the party of an incumbent president within the last 20 years. Data election archives show an average loss of 28 seats for the incumbent party, compared to the loss of only 12 Democratic seats so far in this election. 

As votes of citizens throughout the country continue to be counted, control of the House of Representatives and the Senate remains in sight for both parties. Republicans have picked up 12 seats in the House, with 209 seats confirmed; however, Democrats have also made four pickups, currently claiming 192 seats. The Senate race is even closer, with 48 Democratic seats, 49 Republican seats and two Independent seats that will caucus with the Democrats. 

Despite the strides that the Democratic party has made, there were also substantial losses. In particular, many USC students were surprised by the loss of Beto O’Rourke in the race for Governor of Texas. 

“Hearing the news that [Greg] Abbott actually is elected for another term, shocked me, especially after what happened at the elementary school,” said Emily Sabinas, a junior majoring in music industry. “And not only that, but how his plan was during that winter where a lot of Texas residents had no water, no power, nothing.” 

Contrarily, Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy, was most surprised by certain democratic wins. 

“There’s a house race in New Mexico and a House race in Colorado that I think are particularly surprising,” Grose said, referring to the likely loss of GOP incumbents Gabe Vasquez and Lauren Boebert.  

Outside of the mixed reactions of USC community members, many election analysts were predicting a “red wave,” with the GOP taking a strong majority in the House and a narrower one in the Senate. Yet, both branches of Congress are yet to be called along partisan lines. 

USC experts have many different explanations for this discrepancy, primarily based on reproductive rights,  with just as many voters citing reproductive rights as their top voting issue as inflation, according to reporting by Reuters. 

“First of all, the conventional wisdom, which held that reproductive rights was fading as an issue, turns out to be wrong,” Shrum said. 

Grose agreed, but said he believes there are other factors being overlooked. He believes that the Democrats were given an advantage due to national redistricting that took place in 2022 that made many elections more fair along partisan lines.

“There’s more independent redistricting commissions drawing lines, like has been done in California historically,” Grose said. “That was done in Colorado, that was done in Michigan, and it just made a lot more elections competitive for the U.S. House than had happened in the past.” 

Yet, while many election analysts are focused on the bigger congressional outcomes, USC students are more focused on the impacts of local elections. 

Sophia Bossoughi, a senior majoring in public relations, was most interested in the outcomes of the Los Angeles mayoral race. Although Rick Caruso is currently in the lead with 50.2% of the vote, the race is yet to be called, with only 58% of the vote in, according to L.A. Times reporting.  

“I really do not believe that Rick Caruso is the right person for the job in L.A., and I just was really invested in making sure that I was aware enough to make other people aware of that information,” Bossoughi said. 

Sabinas was also pleased by the results of California elections, particularly the passing of Proposition 1, which enshrined abortion as a right in California’s constitution, and was the “most important election” for her. 

Across campus, community members have had a variety of reactions to the outcomes of the midterm elections. However, they are also waiting to see what is to come, with three key Senate races in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and various Southern California House districts yet to be called. 

“I mean, it does appear Republicans will have a narrow majority, but there’s a lot of districts still being counted in California over the next two weeks,” Grose said. “We have to kind of wait and see how some of the final races play out.”