Sports staff’s predictions for USC’s win total
Trojan football has a lot of season left, but many tough games remain.
By DAILY TROJAN SENIOR SPORTS STAFF
USC football and its fans were slammed back down to earth last weekend after Notre Dame handled the Trojans 48-20 in South Bend. With the dreams of an undefeated season no longer possible, it is hard to know how the rest of the season will go for USC. Four of its final five games are against opponents ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 rankings — so the Daily Trojan sports staff has given their thoughts as to how many more wins the Trojans will capture in this final gauntlet of Pac-12 play.
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Darren Parry — Assistant Sports Editor
2 more wins
In a hypothetical world, USC (6-1, 4-0 Pac-12) wins out, gets a dominant win in the final Pac-12 championship game and clinches the school’s first berth to the College Football Playoff. But let’s be real. We don’t live in a fantasy world — the Trojan’s defense is ranked 92nd in the country, and their only “quality” win is a seven-point victory over a Colorado (4-3, 1-3) team that just blew a 29-point lead to an awful Stanford (2-4, 1-3) team. USC will only win two of its last five games, finishing with an overall record of 8-4.
This may be an overreaction to the horrendous Notre Dame (6-2) game, but I don’t see a way USC gets past Washington (6-0, 3-0) and Oregon (5-1, 2-1). UC Berkeley (3-4, 1-3) should be an easy win, which leaves the questionable games of Utah (5-1, 2-1) and UCLA (4-2, 1-2). The one thing going for the Trojans is that both of these games are at home. They haven’t lost a game at home under Head Coach Lincoln Riley, but Utah is USC’s kryptonite, and both squads have excellent defenses. Don’t get me wrong, I would love for this prediction to be incorrect and celebrate a national championship, but I don’t see any path to Houston if their previous games are reminiscent of what’s to come.
Joshua Sacher — Sports Editor
5 more wins
The hypothetical world mentioned above — while unlikely — is definitely a possibility and one that I believe will become a reality. Despite coming off an embarrassing loss to Notre Dame in South Bend and not having any quality wins, I have faith that the Trojans will turn it around. But how can they revive their season if they have the 92nd-ranked defense and an offense that looked subpar last week? Two words: Caleb Williams.
I know, I know, three picks and a 55.7 QBR last week, yadah, yadah, yadah. Everyone has bad games — against a very good Notre Dame defense, mind you — but Caleb Williams is still the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. There is no world in which I see Willams folding and letting this team lose multiple games.
Additionally, history repeats itself. If I remember correctly, last season, USC was also 6-0 with no quality wins before tragically losing on the road to Utah. But what happened after? The Trojans ran the table, picking up key ranked wins against Notre Dame and UCLA and finishing the season 11-1 with a PAC-12 Championship berth.
While Washington and Oregon are juggernauts in USC’s path, I trust and believe Riley will make the adjustments necessary to beat both of those teams, along with Utah, this coming week (in shootouts because I have no confidence in Alex Grinch and the defense). However, as I said before, history repeats itself. The Trojans fall to Washington in the Pac-12 title game, crushing all of our hearts once again. But hey, there’s always next year for the College Football Playoff!
Dana Hammerstrom — Assistant Sports Editor
2 more wins
My faith in USC football is like a Bath and Body Works candle — it smells great in the store, and during its first few burns, you can tell this candle was worth the money ($26.95 for this example, my entire college tuition for Caleb Williams’ suit budget). But after a while, you start to smell the artificial promise of “Pumpkin Pecan Waffles” that’s really just a wax-based illusion. Dramatics aside, USC football this season has had me on the edge of my seat … because most of the games I want to leave early and not watch the scoreboard inch closer to our downfall.
USC can win at least two of the next five games left in its season. The universities that USC will play in its home state, Cal and UCLA, are matchups where I’d be surprised to leave the stadium without a victory. The Pacific Northwest and a familiar foe in Utah, however, will surely pose as threats to USC’s perfect Pac-12 record. Oregon’s tight loss to Washington last weekend only emphasized the fact that these teams are out for blood — cCardinal red blood.
The Ducks and the Huskies will leave USC fans questioning how much they’re paying the Grinch to sit on the sidelines with his legs crossed like a princess waiting for her carriage. Utah shouldn’t win the game, but the Utes have one thing on their side for their visit to the Coliseum: pressure. The Trojans are not in the right headspace to dominate this game after coming off of a brutal loss to Notre Dame last weekend, so revenge is an unlikely outcome.
Stefano Fendrich — Sports Editor
4 more wins
Let’s all just relax. Take a whiff of your favorite Bath and Body Works candle if you need to, but let’s all stop with our overreactions. Did USC get embarrassed on the national stage last weekend? Yes. Was it just its first loss of the season on the road against a ranked opponent that is Ttop 15 in the nation in total defense and Top 4 in passing defense and red zone defense? Also yes. The Trojans lost to a good team on the road, and we’re all just pretending like they didn’t have one of the most prolific offenses just a week ago. I’m aware that USC’s competition so far hasn’t been the greatest. The team finally faces a good opponent and gets blown out. But I think the loss will serve as a wake-up call for the team and get them back into shape.
They’ll take care of Utah this weekend, considering Trojan-killer senior quarterback Cam Rising doesn’t seem like he’ll be suiting up to play. They’ll handle Cal, and as nervous as it makes me, I think they’ll take care of a much less experienced UCLA team at home. I also give the edge to the Trojans, considering Riley’s lost just two total times at home in his seven-year coaching career. That leaves Oregon on the road and hosting Washington. Both are tough games for their own reasons. In all honesty, I don’t know for sure how they will fare in each. With a more glass-half-full approach, I think they’ll split the games. This team isn’t as bad as you think; they’ll make it to the Pac-12 Championship and get some crucial wins along the way.
Anjali Patel — Associate Managing Editor
3 more wins
I take my Trojan spirit and pride seriously, but I like to play it safe when in doubt, so I will take the humble, average route here. My faith in the team was rather unwavering up until the loss in South Bend last weekend. Granted, Notre Dame was a worthy opponent, and USC was predicted to lose, but the final score was just a bit too embarrassing to ignore. Nonetheless, my soccer mom spirit chooses to remain somewhat optimistic, and I believe the team will saddle up and continue to fight on.
Next weekend’s game against Cal — knock on wood — should be an easy win. With Riley’s home game success rate, I will come out and say UCLA will be a win too. Bragging rights to USC’s crosstown rival aside, even with a lacking defense and a shaky offense, the team is stacked enough to beat the Bruins. After all, even the Grinch can’t ruin Christmas. The real concerns come with Utah, Washington and Oregon. A win in all three games would be beyond ideal, but I know the likelihood of that is slim.
With the current AP Poll rankings and the close game between Washington and Oregon, I predict those two teams will be USC’s downfall. Utah is a toss up, but with the Trojans looking to prove themselves and having the home advantage, I have high hopes it’ll be a victorious day in the Coliseum Saturday.
Leila MacKenzie — Assistant Sports Editor
5 more wins
Notre Dame didn’t figure USC out, rather, the Trojans beat themselves and it’s exactly what they needed. Without affecting their intraconference record, the Trojans have gotten all their wiggles out. Williams will be back from his inevitable game of stink and the defense will recuperate now that they’ve been released from the trance of Sam Hartman’s smolder. Riley has been here before and one thing is certain — you’ve got to believe. It’s your duty as a fan to anticipate magic with every Hail Mary and 4th & 20; revel in the privilege that is rooting for Williams and expect the improbable. Remember, negativity gets you nowhere.
If you don’t think my prediction is justified by sheer optimism, then let’s delve into the history books. At Oklahoma, Riley made three CFP appearances and in each of those seasons, the Sooners suffered a midseason loss. First, they fell to Iowa State 28-31 in 2017, then they gave up 48 points in losses to both Texas and Kansas State in the years to follow. Forty-eight probably sounds familiar, because that’s also how many points the Trojans allowed last week. This is not a coincidence. It may seem counterintuitive, but one meaningless, yet liberating, 48-point loss is vital for the Trojans or any team led by Riley to make the CFP. I’ll be the first to say it: USC controls its own destiny and it’s going all the way. See y’all in Houston!
