Overconfidence is causing USC football to choke mid-season, and after two humbling games, this team has lost its stride.

The egos of Trojan football this season outweigh their execution on the field, leading to their almost definite eviction from a Pac-12 championship run.

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The nail in the coffin was forged long before USC (6-2, 4-1 Pac-12) kicked off to Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12), though.

There’s a spectrum that ranges from confidence to cockiness, and USC football has gone from one end to the other in weeks. Blowouts against San Jose State (3-5, 2-2 Mountain West Conference), Nevada (1-6, 1-2 MWC) and Stanford (2-5, 1-4 Pac-12) tipped the scales past the point of no return.

We saw it first with Arizona State (1-6, 0-4 Pac-12). The simple mistakes, the lacking defense, the hopes for another Heisman Trophy put into question.

Despite a close call against the Buffaloes (4-3, 1-3 Pac-12), the Trojans’ confidence only increased. That win didn’t solidify confidence for fans in Boulder that day, though.

It took a triple-overtime scramble to bring a drop of sweat to USC’s hypothetical brow. Arizona almost took away USC’s perfect home record, revealing the weakness of the Trojans’ performance under pressure.

We were reminded of our mortality against Colorado and Arizona, and then promptly beat to a pulp in South Bend a week later. Aside from Notre Dame (6-2), these season-opening games were a cakewalk compared to the back half of the season. Or should I say, they should’ve been a cakewalk.

This weekend’s game against the Utes proved the Trojan’s failure to perform when they aren’t firing on all cylinders. Performance anxiety on the field is normal for a team at the bottom of their conference with the odds stacked against them. But for USC, they’ve run out of excuses.

The hype surrounding this new era of USC football — Heisman quarterback, $10 million coach, transfer portal, Big Ten conference upgrade, “In Lincoln We Trust” — has proved to be this team’s downfall. USC is still holding onto a decent record, but it’s a miracle they’re still ranked in the AP Top 25.

Confidence is the firm trust that you can rely on something. Cockiness is overconfidence, the belief you have already attained whatever you’re trusted to accomplish. It’s a slippery slope with a tempting, yet indefinite, reward.

It has been proven that winning is related to physiological changes like increased testosterone and serotonin levels, which lead to an increased likelihood of changes in one’s mood. These changes motivate these “winners” to continue to compete, and this is where science impacts success.

However when these so-called “winners” fail, the consequences are more severe than those who can take a loss with a reasonable mindset.

“If an athlete focuses on things that were done wrong when emotion or passion is high immediately after a loss, the attention to problem behavior makes it more likely that the mistakes could negatively affect future performance in similar situations — a phenomenon more commonly known as ‘choking,’” said Keyonna Summers in an article for the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

USC football has broken our trust, but there’s still a chance to regain it if they change one thing about their team: their mindset. If this weekend’s loss to Utah doesn’t aid USC in a season-long comedown, consider the second half of this season a wash. But we can’t only look ahead to the next four weeks.

We loved USC football last season because of its novelty. We had a new coach, over two dozen transfers and something to prove after an embarrassing 4-8 record in 2021. We needed an upgrade, but too much of a good thing can turn bad fast.

We need to remember this story. The tale of a team whose past was too grand to hold a candle to, led by legends like John McKay and Pete Carroll. The winding road of a program whose reputation was raked through the mud after scandals and sacrifices and who lost its victorious spirit under Clay Helton’s reign, most recently. But also as the team who found their footing under new leadership.

There’s a chance to save this legacy, to turn the tides in favor of the Trojans. It requires losses with grace, not wins without gratitude. It will include new conferences with harsher consequences. Success isn’t possible if USC doubles down on this season’s God complex.

Dana Hammerstrom is a junior writing about the mental health of collegiate athletes and the emotional pressures they face in her column, “Heart to Heart,” which runs every other Tuesday.