As we enter a new year, we also embark upon the harrowing journey of a presidential election year. This will be the first presidential election in which the majority of undergraduate students at USC can vote, and those of us who were able to vote four years ago saw how influential our votes can be in the general election. This semester, The Ballot Box will help keep our student body up-to-date on the latest in the presidential races, so that we can all be informed voters for our states’ primary elections — and Nov. 5.

Just like the last two presidential elections, it will be highly contested and will likely be a re-match between 2020 candidates President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. However, considering those frontrunners are currently facing, in Biden’s case, dismal approval ratings and, in Trump’s case, 91 felony counts, the primary election season will be an interesting few months.

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The Republican Party caucus this weekend will be the first time voters are able to officially express their presidential nominee preferences. As the first contest, the Iowa caucuses have historically played a major role in determining nominations for the Democratic and Republican parties because they set the tone. But this year, the Democratic National Committee revoked Iowa’s integral “first in the nation” status, instead making South Carolina its first official primary.

While Trump currently leads the Republican caucus polls by 32 points, the race for second in Iowa will strongly impact Trump challengers’ momentum for the next GOP primary in New Hampshire. Trump currently is polling at 51% for first-choice support in Iowa, with Florida Gov. Ron Desantis trailing at 19% and former United States Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley at 16%.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie announced the end of his campaign Wednesday amid party pressure due to his criticism of Trump. All other candidates are polling at 5% or less for first-choice support, likely knocking them out of the running for second place — although Vivek Ramaswamy has done more than 318 events in Iowa and could yet surprise us despite polling at 5%.

One issue that may come up this weekend as candidates complete their last campaign events is the mass shooting at Perry High School in Perry, Iowa, Jan. 4 — in which the shooter killed a sixth-grader and injured seven others. In the aftermath, the nonpartisan organization March For Our Lives Iowa organized a walkout to protest the government’s inaction on gun reform, and Dallas County Republicans moved the Perry GOP caucus out of Perry High School.

Trump has stated that he strongly supports Second Amendment rights, and in recent interviews, DeSantis proposed more rigorous screening for students exhibiting problematic behavior. Haley responded to the question of school shootings by emphasizing mental health resources and more security at schools. 

In Wednesday’s final GOP primary debate, which Trump skipped to host a Fox News town hall in Iowa, DeSantis and Haley faced off one-on-one. The two spent much of their time criticizing each other, with Haley mentioning desantislies.com multiple times and DeSantis calling Haley “a mealy-mouthed politician.”

Both agreed that Trump should’ve made an appearance at the debate; however, no rebuke or comment from opposing candidates thus far has convinced him to attend a single Republican primary debate throughout the season.

While it seems highly unlikely that Trump will lose Iowa, DeSantis has dumped huge amounts of campaign money into the Iowa race, garnering the support of major donors and endorsements from many prominent state conservatives. While DeSantis may capture second place in Iowa, exhausting so much of his time and resources this early in the game does not bode well for sustaining his campaign through future contests.

Haley has recently emerged as the key Trump competitor, and a good performance in Iowa will set the tone for her race. Currently, she is polling at 32% in New Hampshire, following Trump by only 7 points — and with DeSantis at a measly 5%. Positive results in Iowa could improve her performance in the next primary in New Hampshire, indicating a stronger probability of her potential to challenge Trump for the nomination.

For the next week, the little state of Iowa will be the center of U.S. presidential politics, and come Monday evening, we will have our first presidential litmus test. Until then, find out when your home state is conducting its party primary, and make sure you get to the ballot box.

Kate McQuarrie is a senior writing about the 2024 election cycle as it unfolds. She is also the opinion editor at the Daily Trojan. Her column, “The Ballot Box,” runs every other Thursday.