The past two weeks have been a whirlwind for both me and United States politics, as I found myself in a flooded Iowa mansion, kicked out of a Nikki Haley event for being a college student and finally back on USC’s campus, where the primaries hauntingly followed me to Bovard Auditorium. Between the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primaries and California Senate debate at USC, there’s a lot to catch up on in 2024 primary politics.

Iowa & New Hampshire Results

Donald Trump won big in Iowa, but it came as a surprise to almost no one. The surprising thing was that while I was observing caucus-goers in their opening proceedings in Marshalltown, Iowa, the Associated Press announced Trump to be the winner based on early votes and AP VoteCast. Gov. Ron DeSantis and some of his supporters called this election interference, but the announcement was based on what AP deemed an “insurmountable lead,” and proved to be accurate.

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After winning a meager 7.7% of the vote, Vivek Ramaswamy quickly suspended his campaign, despite saying just the day before at a campaign event that he would stay in the race until 2033, when his two terms of presidency would be over. A few days later, DeSantis — the second-place winner of Iowa — followed suit.

DeSantis suspended his campaign Jan. 21, just two days before the New Hampshire primaries, where the latest polls had him at just 6% of the vote. Despite his narrow second-place finish over Haley in Iowa — 21% and 19%, respectively — DeSantis’ campaign had run out of money and out of steam, and likely wanted to save face for a 2028 presidential bid. 

That left Haley and Trump to face off for the GOP primary in New Hampshire, where the race was a bit more contentious. Trump still won the state with 55% of the vote, but Haley garnered 43% for a decent second-place finish. Haley is adamant that she will be staying in the race, especially with her home state, South Carolina, coming up soon on the primary calendar.

New Hampshire was simultaneously the first Democratic primary, despite Biden and the Democratic National Committee attempting to change that status in 2021 in favor of South Carolina, a state Biden won in 2020 and one with much more diversity.

The state’s Democratic Party chose not to comply with Biden’s 2021 changes in the schedule, and therefore did not feature Biden on the ballot. Still, Biden supporters organized a massive grassroots write-in campaign to avoid embarrassment in the election for Biden. Predictably, Biden still won the state with 66% of the vote, although Dean Phillips received a notable 20%.

California Senate Debate

A little closer to home, USC hosted the California Senate debate for the late Dianne Feinstein’s seat, and the four candidates faced off at Bovard Auditorium. Both the Daily Trojan and POLITICO wrote wonderful coverage of the event, so I’ll skip the nitty gritty and get to the point: California has a unique way of conducting its primaries.

California employs a top-two primary, a system only used in any capacity by five states. In this process, all candidates in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, are listed on the same ballot. The two with the most votes advance to the general election. With three Democrats and one Republican currently running, it will be imperative to closely examine their stances before you cast your vote.

Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff may all be running under the same party, but it is their policy platforms that differentiate them. For the many California voters at USC, it may seem like your vote doesn’t matter in a historically Democratic state, but your vote always matters. And in this case, you have the chance to influence who will fill a Senate seat Feinstein previously held for 31 years.

Looking Ahead to Nevada

The next state up on the primary docket is Nevada, where it just gets weirder. This year, Nevada will be hosting both a state primary Feb. 6 and a Republican Party caucus Feb. 8. When then-Gov. Steve Silosak signed Assembly Bill 126 into law in 2021 in an effort to make voting more accessible by having a primary rather than a caucus, the Nevada GOP promptly filed a lawsuit claiming the law infringed on voters’ rights.

In July, a Nevada judge disagreed, ruling that because presidential preference primaries are not binding to political parties, the GOP could technically still hold its caucus. Stubborn as ever, the GOP decided to have it anyway, despite that decision likely being the true culprit of voter suppression due to the widespread confusion having two separate elections will cause.

Trump and Haley won’t even be on the same ballot: Trump opted to participate in the GOP-sanctioned caucus, while Haley chose to participate in the state primary. However, the 26 Nevada GOP delegates who will elect the Republican Party nominee will come from the caucus, so the primary will be essentially meaningless — in effect, Trump has already won.

With the recent numbers from New Hampshire and current GOP delegate totals sitting at 32 for Trump and 17 for Haley, Nevada’s delegates will more than double Trump’s lead over Haley. But it’s still early, and both candidates are still far from the 1,215 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination.

Many critics have deemed Haley’s campaign essentially over and Trump the clear winner of the nomination, but she seems to have no plans of pulling out. For Haley, a viable bid rests on being able to appeal to more moderate Republicans as Trump continues to demonstrate his stronghold over the GOP base. Well, that and winning her home state, because a loss there would be both embarrassing and difficult to come back from.

Kate McQuarrie is a senior writing about the 2024 election cycle as it unfolds. She is also an opinion editor at the Daily Trojan. Her column, “The Ballot Box,” runs every other Thursday.