When a player starts playing for Benfica’s first team at 17, it pays to take notice. 

The historic club from Lisbon has one of soccer’s most illustrious youth academies. It regularly produces some of the top players in world soccer, many of whom go on to star for the Portuguese national team. Three of the most prominent members of the country’s squad for the European Championship all hail from Benfica’s youth setup: João Félix, Bernardo Silva and Rúben Dias. 

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Upon making an impression in Seixal, each of those three players fetched hefty transfer fees to be acquired by new clubs. Félix moved to Atlético Madrid for over €127 million — but we don’t have to talk about what he’s done since — while Manchester City F.C. shelled out €71.6 million for Dias, making him one of the most expensive defenders of all time. Silva made a lower-profile move to Monaco first before City later acquired Dias’ compatriot for €50 million, which, in 2017, sounded like even more money than it does now. 

João Neves will be the next Portuguese and Benfica star to make a major money move — a triple M? I might be onto something there.

At just 19 years old, Neves has forced his way into a ludicrously deep Portugal squad for Euro 2024, where his country is among the favorites to win it. 

The 2004-born midfielder already has seven caps for his country, but given the pressure on manager Roberto Martínez to deliver a strong finish with perhaps the most talented Portugal squad in history, Neves may find it difficult to earn minutes ahead of Silva, Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha. In the team’s first game against Czechia, Neves stayed on the bench for the duration of the match. 

Martínez’s decision not to bring Neves on was probably due to Portugal’s need to chase goals, having gone behind to Czechia midway through the second half. But it would behoove the Spanish coach to see what Neves can do in a major tournament. Martínez might just unlock a difference-maker far beyond his years.

After making his debut in the 2022-23 season, Neves became an integral part of Benfica’s squad in 2023-24. He started 27 of the team’s 34 Liga Portugal matches as the team finished comfortably in second place, behind only high-flying city rivals Sporting Lisbon, who lost two matches in the 2023-24 campaign. 

The top end of the Portuguese league is undoubtedly a more forgiving place for youngsters to break out and earn their stripes than the Premier League. However, in Neves’ particular role, Benfica’s success often depended on his reliability. 

The team’s style was to control possession and use it to accumulate a high number of shots. According to FootyStats, Benfica averaged 60% possession throughout the 34 matches, meaning Neves, as a midfielder, received a ton of touches. His number of passes attempted per 90 minutes — purely a measure of volume, not quality — was over 80 in 2023-24, placing him in the 98th percentile among players in peer leagues. That’s more than Vitinha or Silva attempted for Paris Saint-Germain F.C. and Manchester City, respectively, although Silva often plays as a winger, too. 

At the very least, that stat proves that Benfica manager Roger Schmidt has tremendous trust in Neves. And when you look at the efficacy of Neves’ passes, Schmidt’s trust seems well-placed. The youngster made 6.66 progressive passes per 90, good enough for the 83rd percentile, and contributed exactly three shot-creating actions per 90, defined as any pass, dribble or foul won that leads to a shot. Benfica took about 12 shots per match, so doing some loose math, Neves tended to create about a quarter of his team’s scoring chances whenever he was on the pitch. 

I don’t know about you, but that sounds pretty good to me! 

For a player with such a hefty attacking workload, Neves appears to be a high-effort defensive player. Combining tackles and interceptions, he wins the ball back for his team almost four times per match, with both individual stats ranking above the 75th percentile among midfielders in leagues of similar quality. When you consider that some of those peer midfielders play for teams that don’t have as much possession, and thus have more opportunities to make a defensive play, Neves’ success rate sounds even better. He also wins 1.6 aerial duels per match, not shabby for a 5-foot-9 midfielder who wouldn’t look out of place on the 2011 Barcelona team. 

But let’s hold our horses for a moment. Neves will still be just 19 next season and could use another year of seasoning at Benfica before Pep Guardiola inevitably anoints him as the next Rodri or Chelsea F.C. blows another £100 million on a midfielder. 

If he manages to get on the pitch for Portugal at Euro 2024 and make an impact, let’s just say I warned you. 

Jack Hallinan is a rising senior writing about the top wunderkinds in men’s and women’s soccer in his column, “Rising Ballers.” He is also the Talkin’ Troy Podcast Editor at the Daily Trojan.