If you are a consumer in the United States, you are probably intensely aware by now that “Wicked” is coming out soon. For months, Universal Pictures has been hard at work to remind you that its big-budget gamble is the movie you should spend your money on this Thanksgiving. 

Promotions for this movie have been, to put it mildly, all over the place. Branded collaborations have overloaded the market, from phone cases to makeup to cocktails to Crocs. There’s a behind-the-scenes special coming. The lead actors, Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, have become the subjects of countless interviews and even popped up at the Summer Olympics. The trailer was even recreated and rereleased in Lego. 

But is all this promotion going to be enough to make this movie land? Deadline’s box office projections for the film’s opening weekend had “Wicked” at around $80 million domestically, which is nothing to scoff at. “Dune: Part Two” opened in March to a $82.5 million domestic opening weekend, and it’s currently the fourth-highest-grossing movie of the year.

That said, “Dune” didn’t quite reach the heights of the summer’s biggest hits, “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which bested a crowded blockbuster market to dominate their competition.  This movie’s going to have to at least reach the heights of “Dune” to merely break even on its massive budget — a reported $145 million — and that’s before factoring in the clearly steep marketing costs.  

But this movie doesn’t just want to profit — it wants to own the holidays. It’s an ambitious swing on a new adaptation in a year where the top 12 films at the box office so far are all sequels, and it’s unclear if Universal will be able to pull off a sensation on par with “Barbie” (2023). 

Making matters worse in the last few weeks were a pair of controversies accompanying this press blitz, and both were entirely avoidable. The old adage that “all press is good press” is not necessarily true in Hollywood, especially with a movie that’s trying to be as omnipresent as “Wicked.”

The first was a seemingly innocent mistake that became national news faster than you can say “popular.” While marketing for the film is intentionally appealing to wider audiences, the “Wicked” team is still trying to speak to diehard fans. For example, they made a tribute poster to the original Broadway art for “Wicked” with Grande and Erivo as their characters, Glinda and Elphaba. It made one fan so excited that she reedited the poster, turning the homage into an exact copy of the poster.

Erivo was infuriated by these changes, which hid her eyes and changed her facial expression as well as the color of her lips to fit with the Broadway artwork. She called it “the wildest, most offensive thing I have seen” and “just deeply hurtful.” 

As TODAY reported, reactions to Erivo’s rant were mixed, with many insisting the artist was merely trying to make the homage more accurate. Either way, the squabble between a star and her own fans probably didn’t help a film that will be relying on its built-in fandom to sell as many tickets as possible. 

Then there was another snafu that simply should not have happened for a movie whose promotional campaign is so comprehensive. Mattel partnered with Universal to make dolls of Glinda and Elphaba, but rather than encouraging customers to visit the official site of the movie, the packaging accidentally directed them to an adult film website instead.  

It’s an embarrassing slip-up so close to the launch of a holiday tentpole, especially as this movie tries to appeal to all ages. “Wicked” may have families to itself for a weekend, but just a few days later, “Moana 2” is going right after the same audience that made “Inside Out 2” an unstoppable force. 

“Wicked” is also running directly against “Gladiator II,” a surprisingly formidable challenger that’s currently tracking at a $65 million opening weekend. If “Gladiator” can keep it close, “Moana 2” could deliver a knockout blow that sends this entire marketing force spiraling. 

That’s not to say all is grim for this movie, however. Early reviews have been glowing. Grande is still a gigantic superstar, and I’m not counting her out. While some of this coverage has centered around controversy, it’s undeniable that “Wicked” has been everywhere for months now — making for a consumer base who, again, is intensely aware that this movie is going to release. Only time will tell if Universal’s holiday tentpole will be able to defy box-office gravity.

Sammy Bovitz is a sophomore writing about the business of film. His column, “Boardrooms & Blockbusters,” runs every other Thursday.