In an awards season filled with turmoil, this year’s Oscar winners seem very hard to pick. From the controversy with actress Karla Sofía Gascón in “Emilia Pérez” (2024), whose racist and Islamophobic tweets only compounded the backlash received by the film for its representation of delicate subject matter, to the issues surrounding the usage of artificial intelligence in the filming of “The Brutalist” (2024) and Adrien Brody’s less-than-savory past appearances at the Oscars and on “Saturday Night Live,” it has been a rollercoaster for fans who follow awards season closely. 

Many different films have won a number of awards from other associations, and the differing winners have made it hard to find a throughline on who seems likely to take home the gold on Sunday. Here, the Daily Trojan’s Arts & Entertainment staff writers give their thoughts on who will win — and lose — big at the most prestigious awards show of the season.

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Best Picture: “Conclave”

Best Picture nominees have been dropping like flies. The controversies with “Emilia Pérez” and “The Brutalist” have certainly dulled their chances, alongside the backlash against the resurfaced blackface video of Fernanda Torres, who starred in “I’m Still Here” (2024). 

Neither will the Academy give the award to “Dune: Part Two” (2024) with “Dune: Messiah” on the horizon. “Nickel Boys” (2024) doesn’t have the star power or the popularity to win Best Picture either. “Wicked” (2024) is too commercial, and “The Substance” (2024) is too indie. “A Complete Unknown” (2024), which hasn’t won any major awards for Best Picture, doesn’t seem like a strong candidate. “Anora” (2024), which has won big at other shows, still feels too independent and risky to win the night’s biggest award.

“Conclave” (2024), directed by Edward Berger and starring Ralph Fiennes as the quietly contemplative yet disruptive Cardinal Lawrence, has achieved a cult following online and garnered support for being a juicy and still-moving drama. Ralph Fiennes puts on a masterclass of subtlety as Cardinal Lawrence, who struggles with his faith amid a critical juncture for the future of the Catholic Church. 

The film’s talented ensemble cast and rich cinematography immerse the viewer in the beauty and history of the Vatican. The movie won Best Film at the BAFTAs, and out of the nominated films, “Conclave” feels like the timely and appropriate choice, honoring both a fantastic director and a lead actor who have long deserved such an award.

—  Hannah Contreras, Arts & Entertainment editor

Best Director: Sean Baker 

While I was disappointed not to see nods for Denis Villeneuve’s grandiose yet affecting work of blockbuster filmmaking that is “Dune: Part Two” or RaMell Ross’ stunning first-person adaptation in the singular, heartbreaking “Nickel Boys,” the Academy has selected a fascinating quintet of nominees for Best Director.

It is by far the least famous group in the recent history of the award; there is no Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan or any name that would be familiar to more casual movie fans. James Mangold, whose movies are quite successful but is not exactly a household name, is the only nominee whose filmography has grossed more than $25 million at the domestic box office.

While Jacques Audiard’s bold vision of “Emilia Pérez” impressed many, Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” is essentially a crowd-pleasing concert movie and Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror thriller “The Substance” is likely to be recognized in a few other categories. The nomination is the prize for that trio. This is a two-horse race between Baker for “Anora” and Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist.”

While there is a lot of respect for the beautiful, grand images Corbet was able to project on screen with just a $10 million budget, “The Brutalist” is three hours and 34 minutes long. They’re missing out, but many Academy members won’t make it past intermission. Corbet’s wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs are promising, but Baker’s win at the Directors Guild of America Awards gives him a slight edge here. In the past 76 years, 68 of the winners at the DGAs have gone on to take home the Oscar, including in 10 of the last 11 awards seasons. 

Baker is very respected within the industry, and “Anora,” which is a rom-com, class commentary and slapstick comedy all at once, will appeal to a lot of voters. Don’t be surprised if Corbet’s name is called, but I think a Baker win is the likelier outcome. 

— Henry Mode, sports editor

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet 

The slate of Best Actor nominees this year is absolutely electric. Colman Domingo and Ralph Fiennes are affecting and terrific in “Sing Sing” (2023) and “Conclave,” respectively. Sebastian Stan had a great year with the one-two punch of “A Different Man” (2024) and “The Apprentice” (2024), the first of which won him a Golden Globe, and the latter of which he is nominated for at the Academy Awards. Adrien Brody is mesmerizing and heartbreaking in “The Brutalist” and he has rightfully been the frontrunner this year, securing crucial wins at the BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes.

But something tells me that it still must be Chalamet’s year. For starters, he is the lead of two of the 10 films nominated for Best Picture. At just 29 years old, he has already achieved enough in his career to warrant retrospectives. After an earnest and triumphant globe-trotting press tour that saw him winning the hearts of just about every demographic and a key Best Actor win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the odds are certainly in his favor.

Chalamet completely disappears into the role of Bob Dylan in a film full of brilliant performances and beautiful musical numbers. His singing and playing of the legendary and challenging music of Bob Dylan, with all its subtleties, is a knockout. Awarding Chalamet now isn’t just about honoring all he’s done. It also encourages every new risk that he — and other rising movie stars — will take going forward. A Brody win would make complete sense, but a Timothée Chalamet win would be a very big and inspiring moment for the next generation of actors.

— Shouri Gomatham, Arts & Entertainment staff writer 

Best Actress: Mikey Madison 

With a crop of incredible performances nominated in the Best Actress category this year, it’s almost too close to call who exactly the Academy might crown their newest darling. Well, at least we know who won’t win Best Actress. Though “Emilia Pérez” has, undeservedly, swept almost every award show this season, it’s quite certain that nominee Karla Sofía Gascón will not be taking home the Academy Award. 

In reality, the Best Actress category is truly a duel between two underdogs: Demi Moore and Mikey Madison. Moore has a good chance of winning, thanks to the Academy’s adoration for a comeback story and their history of handing out “career awards” like candy. This isn’t to say that Moore’s performance is undeserving; on the contrary, “The Substance” saw Moore at her best, reaching the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. 

However, Madison’s performance in Baker’s “Anora” undeniably eclipsed all other nominees. Madison’s Anora grasps and demands the audience’s attention with confidence and flair. From her thick, almost ridiculous Brooklyn accent to her incredible range, Madison is an absolute force. The tonal shift midway through the film would have fallen on its face without Madison. Despite her young career compared to Moore’s, Madison is simply the best option for Best Actress.

— Aubrie Cole, Arts & Entertainment columnist 

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin 

Through no fault of its nominees, Best Supporting Actor might just be the least competitive category this year. “Anora” viewers will go back and forth deciding whether to laugh or cower at Yura Borisov as the Russian bodyguard Igor, and Edward Norton’s portrayal of folk icon Pete Seeger in “A Complete Unknown” is a delight. Still, all of the category’s nominees have yet to deliver a performance on par with Kieran Culkin’s in “A Real Pain” (2024).

As the lovable, larger-than-life Benji Kaplan, Culkin imbues the film with the emotional depth that ultimately drives its concise, 90-minute storyline. His performance steers viewers along Benji’s tumultuous rollercoaster of emotions. 

Throughout the film, Benji’s effortless charisma is colored by the mental health struggles that taint the entirety of his trip to Poland. “A Real Pain” follows Benji experiencing high highs and low lows while his cousin, David (Jesse Eisenberg), attempts to pick up the pieces. While Culkin and Eisenberg’s dynamic is central to the movie’s arc, make no mistake: Culkin absolutely steals the show in every scene he is in.

Culkin has already secured the category’s BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe and SAG awards during this awards season. An Oscar statuette is all but guaranteed to follow. 

— Fiona Feingold, Arts & Entertainment editor

Best Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini 

The shoo-in candidate is Zoe Saldaña for “Emilia Pérez,” having completely swept the rest of the awards season. That being said, the controversy surrounding both Karla Sofía Gascón’s tweets and the film’s misrepresentation of Mexican and transgender identities may have disenfranchised some Academy voters. While Saldaña is certainly the betting man’s option, it may be interesting to consider other nominees’ chances.

Felicity Jones and Monica Barbaro both suffer from their films’ awards campaigns not centering around them — instead around Brody and Chalamet, respectively — pretty much writing the actresses out of the race. Meanwhile, Ariana Grande is in the unfortunate position of starring in the first part of a known series. Maybe “Wicked: For Good” will sweep all its awards in 2026, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003)-style, but not this year.

This leaves one nominee: “Conclave”’s Isabella Rossellini. As a legacy actress in several respects, Rossellini’s campaign has shown her to be the most experienced and, therefore, most worthy candidate. The biggest disadvantage is the relative size of her role; Rosselini only has seven minutes and 51 seconds of screen time. Although she clearly deserved an Academy Award for her delivery of “big beef and cheddar” in “30 Rock,” perhaps even Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress will have to suffice.

— Duncan Geissler, Arts & Entertainment staff writer