Selection Sunday is coming up this weekend, and with that, the start of March Madness. The 68-team tournament is my favorite event of the year for good reason. It’s a basketball bonanza, in a sense — the opening Thursday and Friday contain 16 games each, providing an unrivaled nearly 13-hour viewing experience for basketball fans across the country. 

The tournament is especially fun when schools that are less visible to the general public go on shocking runs, like Florida Gulf Coast University’s “Dunk City” team in 2013, or Saint Peter’s University’s improbable Elite Eight run just a few years ago. And who could forget the University of Maryland, Baltimore County’s earth-shattering beatdown of No. 1 overall-seed Virginia in 2018? 

And of course, there’s the prediction games. Filling out the bracket is a time-honored tradition that draws out everyone with even a remote interest in the sports world. This includes office pools at work, kids at schools and even the President of the United States — just check out former President Obama’s collection of picks over the years.

Last season, I didn’t have the time to watch the college basketball season as intently as usual because of work; I watched about 10 games in total during the regular season. Truthfully, I had almost forgotten that the tournament was about to tip off, so I found myself rushing to fill out my March Madness bracket on a plane right before the first Round of 64 game tipped off. Not ideal.

Needless to say, my bracket was busted in due time. I picked second-seeded Iowa State to win the title, and they were ousted by Illinois in the Sweet 16. I did have a good feeling about UConn though, so maybe I did know a thing or two.

This year, I’d like to win my friend group’s bracket pool — and help all of you win yours. So, in this edition of “The Notebook,” let’s go over a few strategies for filling out the bracket so that we can all finish first. Or at least try to.

#1 — Send a blue team to the natty

Dating back to 2014, in every national championship game except two one of five schools has appeared: Gonzaga, Villanova, Duke, UConn and North Carolina. Both UNC and Villanova are on track to miss the tournament this year, leaving the other three options available for bracket builders to send to the title game. 

Duke (28-3, 19-1 ACC) is having a phenomenal year, led by star freshman forward Cooper Flagg. The Blue Devils moved to No. 1 in yesterday’s AP Top 25 poll, and currently lead the nation in both NCAA Evaluation Tool and KenPom, making them an obvious championship contender and a relatively safe title pick.

Meanwhile, Gonzaga (23-8, 14-4 West Coast) and UConn (22-9, 14-6 Big East) are both having quiet seasons relative to their past successes, but the Bulldogs have made it to the second weekend in every tournament since 2014 and the Huskies have won the last two national championships. It’s reasonable to play it safe and stick with consistency, so you should pick any of those three teams to make it to the national championship in San Antonio.

#2 — Don’t trust the Big Ten

I fondly remember the 2020-21 season. After the 2020 tournament was cancelled due to the pandemic, 2021 looked extremely promising for the Big Ten Conference. A record-setting nine teams were invited to the Big Dance, the second-most in tournament history. The number only trailed the 2011 Big East’s 11 bids — a record that the SEC is almost certain to break this year — for the most in NCAA tournament history.

Unfortunately, the Big Ten collapsed during the first weekend of that tournament. The stunning flop was punctuated by No. 2-seed Ohio State’s elimination by No. 15-seed Oral Roberts, while No. 1 Illinois and No. 4 Purdue also fell in stunning fashion. In fact, eight of the nine invited teams were eliminated during that opening weekend, with No. 1 Michigan being the only team in the conference to make it to the Sweet 16.

The conference hasn’t hoisted a national championship since Tom Izzo’s Michigan State title-winning campaign in 2000. Truthfully, there’s no real indication that the situation will change this year; No. 7 Michigan State (26-5, 17-3 Big Ten) and No. 11 Maryland (24-7, 14-6 Big Ten) are the only teams ranked in the top 15, and neither school performed particularly well against top opposition in non-conference play. 

I would love to be proven wrong, but I don’t think 2025 is the year that the narratives around the Big Ten’s postseason failures are broken.

#3 — Don’t get too bold

I suppose this last one is more of a personal assessment. I have a habit of being a bit too upset-minded, and picking bold underdogs to make deep runs. I remember picking 14-seed Morehead State to make a Sweet 16 run last year; they got clobbered by Illinois in the first round. This year, I’m stopping myself. 

It’s high time to stay glued to the reality of the tournament; teams are seeded on certain lines in the bracket for a reason. A No. 1 seed has made the Elite Eight every year except in 2023, and no seed lower than No. 11 has ever made the Final Four. 

I’ve made some bold calls over the years — Mercer’s upset of Duke in 2014 was incredible — but sometimes the safer option plays the best. The chalk bracket, which entails solely picking the higher seed straight up, usually ends up with more points than my own. While Cinderella runs are fun, eventually, the clock does have to strike midnight. 

Remember these few tips while making your picks, and you may see success in your group’s bracket challenge. Or maybe these long-standing trends will be magically bucked; you never know what can happen in March. We’ll see in a month.

Darrian Merritt is a freshman writing about the cultural and popular appeal of sports in his column, “The Notebook,” which runs every other Monday.