The United States hits the ball to China: 104% tariffs. China hits back: 125% tariffs. The U.S. retaliates: 145% tariffs. The trade war has felt like a game of ping pong the past few days. 

“Liberation Day” meant imposing tariffs on 90 nations. Because of that, experts are predicting that a recession will occur. Stock values are volatile. Consumer sentiment is plunging, even lower than what was seen during the Great Recession. Amid growing tension and fears, President Donald Trump needs to strike trade deals and strike them fast; otherwise, people in the U.S. won’t be able to trust him, and the fear of a recession could become our reality. 

Currently, tariffs are at the center of attention because of their global impact. Tariffs are taxes on foreign goods that are paid to the government and increase the cost of goods. With the 145% tariff on China, for example, if a Chinese product costs $10, it will now cost $24.50.

Trump says tariffs will encourage Americans to buy items made in the U.S. His taxes, especially those pertaining to our bordering nations of Canada and Mexico, are aimed at stopping illegal immigration and fentanyl. Other reasons Trump states for imposing tariffs include balancing the federal budget, improving fairness through reciprocal tariffs, boosting national security, making child care more affordable and making the U.S. richer. 

The effects of the numerous tariffs have been drastic. 

Consumers have seen Trump’s back-and-forth tariffs, rattling investor confidence. We’re in a bear market — a decline in the financial market of at least 20%. The stock market is erratic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 5.5%, the S&P 500 decreased 5.97% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.8%. The stock market lost $5 trillion between April 2 and 4. Since Inauguration Day, the U.S. stock market has lost $9.6 trillion, according to MarketWatch.

Even if you don’t invest, this decline can still impact you. The value of pension savings is affected by the stock market performance. Jobs can also be at risk if share prices fall for a long period of time because investors want returns, and one way to cut costs is to cut jobs. 

However, it’s not just the stock market that indicates uncertainty. 

For instance, U.S. Treasury yields increased last Friday. Yields are tied to consumer loans, and higher rates mean borrowing becomes more expensive, reducing consumer demand. Moreover, oil prices have also declined. The current drops indicate a potential economic downturn, not an abundance of cheap energy.

Last week, J.P. Morgan raised its recession risk evaluation to a 60% chance. Now, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorganChase, says it’s 50-50. On NBC News’ Meet the Press, billionaire and Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said, “Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession.”

Additionally, consumer spending makes up approximately 70% of our economic activity. Higher costs will decrease demand, causing businesses to produce fewer goods, limiting growth and possibly causing a recession. Tariffs can also lead to inflation, which contributes to the likelihood of recession. 

Last week, Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs with the exception of China. The Dow increased 7.87%; the S&P 500 surged 9.5%; the Nasdaq went up 12.2%. 

Despite this, investors are still wary. After all, the 90-day pause is merely temporary. Moody’s Analytics chief economist, Mark Zandi, told Fortune business magazine that he takes “no solace” regarding the pause. “Even if the administration can cut a few deals during this period, it will leave us with significantly higher tariffs, which are tax increases on American consumers and businesses,” Zandi said.

Meanwhile, RSM’s U.S. Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas told CNN that the “[US] economy is still likely to fall into recession, given the level of simultaneous shocks that it’s absorbed.”

There is some hope that Trump will sign trade agreements with other countries. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said 70 countries asked to meet with U.S. representatives about tariffs. However, trade deals are complex and usually take years to negotiate. Not to mention, there’s still tension between the world’s biggest exporter, China and the U.S.

Many factors point to a recession. Trump and his team say his policies can cause “short-term pain,” but the rewards will outweigh the costs. This “short-term pain” is a self-inflicted wound. His tariffs are weakening the economy and eroding trust, costing the U.S. trillions. The burden of this “short-term pain” falls on working Americans and everyday consumers. 

We should brace for unfavorable economic conditions and a potential recession — Trump isn’t afraid of forcing us into one.