I’ve been writing about “Superman” for over a year, and now its release is just 23 days away: July 11. It’s not hyperbole to say that this movie offers the highest possible stakes for its studio, parent company, genre and industry at large. To explain, allow me to turn back the clock.

In early 2023, filmmaker James Gunn, known for writing and directing the “Guardians of the Galaxy” trilogy, and producer Peter Safran announced their intentions to completely reboot the struggling DC film studio with an “eight- to 10-year plan.” While Gunn didn’t say it out loud, the plan was obvious: produce a rival for Marvel Studios’ wildly successful Marvel Cinematic Universe that DC can proudly call its own. Of course, this is DC’s second attempt at a shared media universe after the DC Extended Universe ended in disgrace in late 2023.

If “Superman” doesn’t work, the so-called DC Universe could be dead in the water. That said, this is not like past failed shared universes, such as Universal’s infamous “Dark Universe” of classic movie monsters — there are several other DCU projects that are already in active development, whether this movie succeeds or not.

“Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow” has already finished production and will debut next summer, and “Clayface,” also slated for next year, will start shooting in October. The television side is also in full production mode, with a new season of “Peacemaker” releasing in August and the new series “Lanterns” currently shooting.

In fact, the animated show “Creature Commandos” technically launched the DCU when it debuted on Max in December, but this summer blockbuster is the DCU’s introduction to all audiences.  In other words: If “Superman” flops, it could doom over a dozen projects and become one of the most expensive failures in recent movie-making history.

Fans of superhero movies may already know that, but what they may not know is that DC’s parent company, Warner Bros. Discovery, is also betting a lot on the success of “Superman.” 

On June 9, Warner Bros. Discovery announced plans to split in two, shifting almost all of its cable networks, such as CNN and the Food Network, to a spin-off company alongside other divisions like Bleacher Report and the streaming service Discovery+.

The main company will only keep a few divisions: the main Warner Bros. film, television and gaming production studios, as well as HBO, HBO Max, some international sports rights and finally, DC, making this new cinematic universe an essential pillar of the company’s new business model. So if “Superman” fails, that not only disrupts plans for the DC projects intended to follow, but also seriously threatens the new business strategy its parent company is pursuing.

The high stakes don’t end there! This column has already explored the problems facing the Marvel Cinematic Universe, with this year’s “Captain America: Brave New World” and “Thunderbolts*” among the two worst-performing Marvel movies at the box office. Those movies were slightly smaller-scale affairs, but “Superman” is positioning itself as a major event: the return of a marquee character and an entire comic book universe, with a production budget of at least $225 million before factoring in marketing costs.

If an event film like “Superman” tanks, what does that say about Hollywood’s most reliable genre for the past decade or so? Superhero movies were everything in the 2010s, but if “Superman” can’t restore some of that momentum, both DC and Marvel will have to consider limiting their budgets and even scaling back their massive plans for new content.

Finally, let’s talk about Hollywood itself. The bread and butter of major studios is making gigantic summer and holiday blockbusters like “Superman,” cutting through the wall of internet noise to create movies that everyone goes to the theater to see.

Last summer, “Deadpool & Wolverine” (2024) broke Marvel’s recent slump and joined “Inside Out 2” (2024) in the $1 billion club. Making $1 billion at the box office is a vital symbol of status and success in the modern blockbuster industry, in addition to its incredible return on investment.

This summer has started strong with “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning” and “Lilo & Stitch,” and unless Pixar’s “Elio” breaks out, “Superman” is the next film on the calendar that could appeal to all audiences and potentially climb to $1 billion. If it falters, it could decrease audience interest in Marvel’s “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” another major superhero film coming out just two weeks later.

So, what does success look like for “Superman” and all who are relying on it? Considering its high production and marketing budget, anything less than $500 million at the box office would be a disaster. To succeed, however, we should turn to the last blockbuster with stakes this high: “Wicked” (2024). That movie grossed $756 million worldwide against a production budget of about $150 million — but “Superman” has a budget that flew even higher.

For “Superman” to be considered a success, when compared only to its budget, it needs to make at least $800 million. But when considering the risk this film poses for its studio, parent company, genre and industry, its intended target flies higher. “Superman” must become the 57th film in history to make a worldwide total of $1 billion.

Sammy Bovitz is a rising junior writing about the business of film. His column, “Boardrooms & Blockbusters,” runs every other Friday during the school year.