With five seconds left in the fourth quarter, then-No. 4 Oregon football — less than a year off making the 2011 National Championship Game — lined up for a 37-yard field goal against the Trojans. The Ducks, down by three, went in motion as the clock ticked down. But, the ball veered left. That was it. USC took down Oregon, 38-35. 

That 2011 USC team, led by now-Ole Miss Head Coach Lane Kiffin, proved something that night. Two years prior, the Trojans wallowed in mediocrity — going 8-5 in 2010 and 9-4 in 2009 — encapsulated by an embarrassing 55-21 Homecoming loss against then-Pacific-12 foe Stanford. 

So, when USC surmounted Oregon and finished the 2011 regular season with a 10-2 record, they put a glimmer of hope in Trojan fans’ hearts. By taking down their fellow Pacific-12 rival, it seemed that USC had returned to the glory of the mid-2000s, with Pete Carroll and the resulting two national championships.

It’s in an eerily similar fashion that Head Coach Lincoln Riley and his No. 15 USC football team (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) will head north to face No. 7 Oregon (9-1, 6-1) Saturday, with playoff — and potentially program-defining — implications waiting on the other side. 

If the Trojans win, they will almost assuredly make their College Football Playoff debut, since they are massive favorites against UCLA (3-7, 3-4) next weekend. If not, however, USC will fall to three losses and be all but eliminated from playoff contention, while the Ducks will likely glide to the 12-team tournament.

“It’s win or go home right now, ain’t no going home,” redshirt senior linebacker Eric Gentry said after last Saturday’s win over Iowa (6-4, 4-3). 

Maiava, Lemon continue stellar seasons

After a slow start, redshirt junior quarterback Jayden Maiava once again showed up last Saturday, throwing for 254 yards and no interceptions. However, Maiava has a lot to prove in Eugene, as the junior quarterback has struggled on the road this season. 

At home, Maiava has thrown 14 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. Away, however, Maiava has picked up four interceptions alongside just four touchdowns; his completion percentage dwindles to around 57%, far below his season average of 66.8%.

Maiava, however, has the opportunity to turn this stat on its head in what is probably the biggest game of his career up to this point. 

Also firing on all cylinders is junior wide receiver Makai Lemon, who is currently one of the favorites for the prestigious Biletnikoff Award, awarded to the most outstanding wide receiver in college football. Lemon has undoubtedly backed this sentiment up with his 1,090 total receiving yards and eight touchdown receptions. He leads the Big Ten in receptions and receiving yards. 

“He’s always had just that fearless quality to him, and that continues to show up to this day. He’s worked hard at his craft, and obviously we all have a lot of confidence in him,” Riley said of Lemon after the Iowa game. 

However, Oregon has the best pass defense in the country, allowing the least amount of yards in the air in all of college football. For this game, USC may have to rely on its battered rushing attack for some heavy lifting. 

Jordan not expected to play against Ducks

Junior running back Waymond Jordan, who started the first five games for the Trojans, went down against Michigan on Oct. 11 and underwent ankle surgery three weeks ago; Jordan led USC with 88 carries and 576 yards before his injury. He was promoted to questionable on the Big Ten’s Availability Report ahead of the Iowa game, but Jordan will still likely not play in Eugene on Saturday, Riley said Tuesday.

Redshirt senior running back Eli Sanders, who was the Trojans’ second-string running back, is also out after suffering a season-ending injury against Michigan.

However, USC’s rush offense has not faltered. Redshirt freshman running back King Miller has had his impressive coming-of-age in the latter half of the season, carrying the Trojan rush offense both literally and figuratively with great offensive showings. Miller has picked up 719 yards on the ground with five touchdowns, emphasized in his 158-yard showing against Michigan. 

Sophomore running back Bryan Jackson has also picked up some slack, recording his first two-touchdown game against Iowa over the weekend. 

“It’s gone remarkably well,” Riley said of the Trojans’ run game in a post-practice news conference Tuesday. “I don’t know that anyone could have predicted that, to be completely honest.”

On the other hand, Oregon’s rush offense has dominated teams on the line, with freshman running back Jordon Davison exploding for 12 touchdowns this season on just 66 carries. His complements, senior running back Noah Whittington and freshman running back Dierre Hill Jr., are both averaging above eight yards per carry, recording a combined nine touchdowns.

Oregon led by signature rush game

The last time USC faced an impressive run game like Oregon’s was last month’s matchup against No. 9 Notre Dame (8-2), where junior running back Jeremiyah Love and the Fighting Irish rush offense recorded a monster 306 yards. The Ducks average 41 yards more than the Fighting Irish per game on the ground, demonstrating the Trojans’ need for an all-hands-on-deck defensive line showing on Saturday. 

Oregon sophomore quarterback Dante Moore has had a fine season, most notably leading the Ducks to a slim 18-16 win against Iowa, which USC beat 26-21 on Saturday. Oregon was down by one with just 1:51 left on the clock, but Moore and senior wide receiver Malik Benson combined to drive Oregon down the field to set up a game-winning field goal, keeping the Ducks firmly within the CFP top 10. 

Oregon has one of the most potent rush offenses in the country, but the passing game, especially to wide receivers, has been limited, with the Ducks mostly relying on freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore after senior wide receiver Evan Stewart was sidelined by a knee injury earlier in the season. 

Moore leads Oregon with just 443 yards, the polar opposite of USC’s pass-dominated offense. 

This may be a pro for the Trojans’ already depleted secondary, with safeties redshirt junior Kamari Ramsey and redshirt senior Bishop Fitzgerald leaving Saturday’s game against Iowa and not returning. Riley did not give an update on their status when asked Tuesday, saying they all partook in practice but would reveal their status on the availability report, which is released roughly two hours before the game.

However, junior safety Christian Pierce and sophomore safety Kennedy Urlacher both stepped up heavily for Defensive Coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s defense against Iowa, recording 12 tackles total. 

“We got a lot of confidence in those guys that came in,” Riley said after the win over Iowa. “We felt like we built a pretty good safety room, and it showed up tonight.”

Just like Kiffin and his 2011 team, the Trojans have lost two games this season, against Illinois (7-3, 4-3) and rival Notre Dame. In sink-or-swim waters for Riley and company, USC will head to Eugene to take on Oregon this Saturday at 12:30 p.m. with its postseason hopes hanging in the balance.