It’s been about the same story in each of women’s basketball’s last six games.

Senior guard Kara Dunn has scored at least 21 points on an efficient clip to lead USC (11-9, 3-6 Big Ten); at some point during the second half, the Trojans have held a lead; and, outside of a Jan. 18 win over equally struggling Purdue (11-9, 3-6), USC has gone home the loser.

Sunday’s 73-67 loss to No. 9 Michigan (17-3, 8-1) was perhaps the shining example of this trend.

Dunn led USC with 26 points and 10 rebounds for her first double-double of the season and the fourth of her career, being the only Trojan to shoot above 0.500 at a 9-for-15 clip. She was also the only true option from beyond the arc after making 3-of-7 and the most-consistent option at the free-throw line, sinking all five attempts.

After losing the first quarter by 12 points and going into halftime down big, USC took a third-quarter lead thanks to a dominant run powered by Dunn’s 11 and senior guard Londynn Jones’ 8 points in the quarter. But after a collapse that saw even Dunn shoot below 0.500 in the fourth quarter and turn the ball over twice, what at one point appeared to be a potential season-saving, defining win became USC’s sixth loss in its last seven games. 

Now, despite being No. 23 in the NCAA’s NET rankings — a stat that accounts for strength of opponents, scoring margin and other factors — the Trojans are approaching 0.500 with an NCAA Tournament bid nowhere near secured. To make matters worse, USC still has three more teams ranked in the top 11 left on its schedule.

Dunn’s efficiency has kept USC afloat

Dunn has been USC’s most efficient scorer all season, but the superstar has been especially effective in her last six games. During that stretch, she has taken at least 15 shots in each contest — a significant increase from the beginning of the season — while shooting above 0.500 in four of those games.

The senior guard is shooting 48.7% from the field — far more than any other Trojan with similar shot attempts — and has steadily crept up on freshman guard Jazzy Davidson’s points-per-game lead, projecting to become the team’s leading scorer within the next week or two.

Dunn’s efforts even led her to outduel Michigan sophomore guard Olivia Olson, who led the Wolverines with 24 points on 10-of-20 shooting despite missing all of her 3-point attempts.

Though Davidson still leads the team with 16 points per game — slightly ahead of Dunn’s 15.3 — efficiency has been a persistent issue for the freshman. Davidson has taken almost 100 more shots than Dunn but is shooting just 0.382 from the field and a rough 0.268 from 3-point land — meanwhile, Dunn is one of just two Trojans with above a 0.300 shooting percentage from deep at 0.393.

On Sunday, Davidson continued to struggle, making 3-of-10 shots for 11 points. However, her playmaking was put on full display, dishing a team-high seven assists. It was Davidson’s 17th-straight game with double-digit points.

Jones was USC’s only other offensive threat against the Wolverines, making 4-of-10 shots for 12 points. She was also the only Trojan besides Dunn to sink multiple treys Sunday, making 2-of-5 attempts from 3-point land.

Turnovers, frontcourt depth haunt USC

Though sophomore guard Kennedy Smith’s offensive struggles have been largely overlooked this season due to her stellar defense, a particularly rough performance against Michigan was a significant part of the loss. 

Smith turned the ball over a career-high eight times alone — just days after committing seven against Michigan State (18-2, 7-2) — contributing to USC’s already high 21 total turnovers. Michigan overall had 12. Smith also made just 2-of-7 shots from the field for 5 points, though her three steals still led the Trojans. On the season, Smith is shooting 35.3% from the field and an abysmal 19.4% from 3.

While inefficiency outside of Dunn has plagued USC, the frontcourt rotation of sophomore forward Vivian Iwuchukwu, junior forward Gerda Raulušaityte, redshirt freshman forward Laura Williams, junior forward Yakiya Milton and sophomore forward Dayana Mendes has failed to produce anything of note offensively — combining for 14.2 points per game despite collectively logging well over the minutes of an average starter.

With the quintet typically playing for one starting spot and two spots in a second rotation, none typically get much more than 15 minutes and two shots a game, making it difficult to make a standout impact. Iwuchukwu earned her third straight start Sunday but played the fewest minutes of the group, outside of Milton who didn’t play at all, scoring 2 points.

Unlike USC’s top-heavy rotation, Michigan’s entire starting five scored double-digit points.

Hoping to snap out of their rough patch, the Trojans will head back home to Galen Center, Thursday at 6 p.m. to take on No. 8 Iowa (18-2, 9-0), which is tied for first in the Big Ten.