As the madness of March looms ever closer, all eyes are on the rivalry bout between USC and UCLA men’s basketball. 

With the battered Trojans near falling off the NCAA Tournament bubble, and the Bruins (19-9, 11-6 Big Ten) just on the right side after a ranked win over the weekend, it seemed likely only one of the crosstown foes could make the tournament. After USC’s poor shooting performance that led to an 81-62 loss Tuesday, it looks like the Trojans won’t be the ones to take on the 68-team showdown, barring a miracle run in the Big Ten Tournament or an upset over No. 12 Nebraska (24-4, 13-4) this Saturday.

Coming into the game, USC (18-10, 7-10) was fresh off two heartbreaking losses that took two drastically different forms: A 7-point blown lead in the final minute of the game against Oregon (10-17, 3-13), and a 36-point loss against No. 10 Illinois (22-6, 13-4). Though the Trojans had been on the bubble for much of the season, a recent downturn made the matchup with UCLA extra important. 

“We need to figure out how to win a game before worrying about anything of that magnitude,” said Head Coach Eric Musselman in a postgame news conference regarding the team’s NCAA tournament hopes. 

The Trojans didn’t start out as if they understood the importance of their match against UCLA. Freshman guard Alijah Arenas, sophomore forward Jacob Cofie and graduate guard Kam Woods — three of USC’s starters and some of the Trojans’ top scorers — shot a combined 0-for-7 in the first half. The team collectively landed an abysmal 31% of their field goal attempts. 

Against UCLA, star-player Arenas scored just 10 points, his second-lowest total since the Jan. 31 game against Rutgers (11-17, 4-13). Even though the guard showed shades of the dominant playstyle he displayed against Indiana and Penn State in early February, where he notched 29 and 24 points, respectively, it was clear he was nervous. Arenas committed a career-high five turnovers, four of which came in the first half. 

Efficiency troubles have been present all season for Arenas, but especially recently; ever since USC’s Feb. 11 matchup against Ohio State (17-11, 9-8), Arenas had scored below 15 points in all three of his appearances.

“We just can’t turn the ball over,” Musselman said. “It’s been a learning curve for [Arenas] … He’s an incredible talent with an awesome ceiling and incredible future, but in a game like tonight, he’s learning.”

With Arenas’ struggles on the court, graduate guard Chad Baker-Mazara served as USC’s main offensive outlet. Baker-Mazara kept USC close early on, scoring four 3-pointers in the first 10 minutes and going for 25 points on 8-for-16 shooting. He also added two blocks. 

Though he was by far USC’s highlight, Baker-Mazara fell victim to injury during the match. The guard went down with a non-contact leg injury early in the second half. He returned, but was limited, favoring his right side. 

“Baker-Mazara is a potent offensive player that can turn your lights out,” UCLA Head Coach Mick Cronin said in a postgame news conference. 

Across the court, UCLA’s leading scorer appeared to also be afflicted with Arenas’ gametime jitters: senior forward Tyler Bilodeau had just 5 points in the first half. However, other players were happy to step up to the plate: A 30-point masterclass by UCLA senior guard Donovan Dent, including a 2-point buzzer beater at halftime, was massive in securing the game for the Bruins.  

USC tried to stay competitive for a majority of the second half, but five UCLA second-half steals — four of which came from sophomore guard Trent Perry — and a decisive 26-7 UCLA run with eight minutes left, effectively shut USC out of the game. 

The loss was a brutal one for the Trojans, but their schedule won’t get any easier. USC will be the heavy underdogs when they face Nebraska at Galen Center on Saturday at 1 p.m., before finishing out their regular season by facing Washington (14-14, 6-11), which they will need to beat to maintain any postseason hopes, and a rematch with UCLA, both at home.