The script is starting to get stale for USC women’s water polo.

The Trojans tear through the country for three months — outside of the occasional loss to a conference rival — re-cementing their status as one of the top teams in the sport. They earn a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and play their way to the championship round. Then, one win from a national title, they lose.

This has been the story for USC in three of the past four years, aside from a disappointing 2024 campaign when the Trojans lost in the quarterfinals. After winning five national titles in 12 seasons from 2010 to 2021, USC’s norm has become getting close but going home empty-handed, failing time and time again to finish the job.

However, this year’s squad may finally be the one to bring a championship back to the cardinal and gold. The No. 2 Trojans (22-3, 6-0 MPSF) are led by the MPSF Player of the Year, sophomore attacker Emily Ausmus. They have a veteran-heavy roster with an abundance of postseason experience. 

Most importantly, they boast wins over every major contender in the NCAA field — including the top seed, No. 1 Stanford (14-1, 5-1), which dashed their hopes of an MPSF title just two weeks ago.

Though the road ahead is far from easy, USC has proven itself capable of handling the toughest competition the tournament has to offer. With just three more wins, the Trojans would take home their first national championship since 2021, returning to their typical place atop the collegiate water polo landscape.

Lions, Bruins block path to the final

USC’s quest for the crown will begin with No. 6 Loyola Marymount University (23-4, 6-0 Golden Coast Conference), which the Trojans hold a 33-0 record against all-time. While the Lions are unlikely to pose a considerable threat in the quarterfinals, they still possess a dangerous lineup for USC to be wary of.

Offensively, LMU is spearheaded by graduate utility Anna Tarantino and freshman utility Emison Styris, who lead the team with 40 and 39 goals, respectively. Styris also has the second-most assists at 34, while Tarantino has racked up 15 steals across the season.

The Lions’ primary strength, however, is their goalkeeping: Freshman Madison Searle has allowed fewer than eight goals per game on a 56.2% save percentage, both of which trounce the respective numbers from USC’s primary goalkeeper, redshirt sophomore Anna Reed. The Trojans will likely need to take considerably more shots than LMU if they want to overcome the gap protecting the net.

After the Lions, the Trojans will likely await a rivalry match with No. 3 UCLA (20-4, 4-2 MPSF). The crosstown rivals have already faced off three times this year; while the Bruins took the first two nonconference matchups, USC bounced back in the regular-season finale to claim the MPSF Tournament’s No. 1 seed.

The Trojans’ key to advancing will simply be staying consistent on offense: In each of the two losses, they scored just nine goals, the only times this season in which they’ve been held to single digits. In contrast, USC scored 13 in its regular-season finale win, thanks in large part to a five-goal performance from Ausmus.

The defense will also need to prevent UCLA’s star players from getting hot. The Trojans’ two losses featured five- and six-goal outbursts from senior attacker Taylor Smith and senior utility Bia Mantellato, respectively, both of whom were held to just two in USC’s win.

Bears, Cardinal may await in championship

If the Trojans can make it past the Bruins, they’ll be rewarded with their seventh championship appearance in the last eight tournaments, where they will likely play against either No. 4 UC Berkeley (14-7, 3-3) or Stanford.

Though Cal has gone 0-7 against the top three teams in the field this season, making a run to the finals unlikely, the Golden Bears have won every other game and are still more than capable of hanging around, with two one-goal losses to UCLA and another such loss to the Cardinal. In fact, their worst showings have come against USC, which has bested them by at least three goals in all three matchups this year.

In the squads’ most recent meeting, the Trojans won behind a balanced attack from their stars, with four different players recording hat tricks. USC capitalized on a rough outing from Golden Bear redshirt sophomore goalkeeper Talia Fonseca, who saved just six of the 23 shots on goal; if the Trojans can find that level of offensive efficiency again, they’ll be well on their way to a championship.

However, the more likely — and dangerous — outcome is a rematch with Stanford. The teams split their two meetings this season: USC pulled off a last-second 11-10 win in the regular season, but the Cardinal got their revenge in the MPSF Tournament final.

The Trojans pulled off their miracle regular-season victory, which remains Stanford’s only loss this season, behind a stellar showing from their defense. USC held the Cardinal to just 14 shots on goal — a number that ballooned to 23 in the conference championship — and clamped down as the match went on, allowing only three goals in the second half.

A second victory over the country’s No. 1 team would require a precise combination of stalwart defense and timely offense, but the Trojans have already shown they’re up to the task — they just need to rediscover the magic that propelled them earlier in the season.

Before USC can think about the final, however, it needs to get there. That pursuit will begin against LMU in La Jolla on Friday at 6 p.m.