Show’s speed raises concern over George R.R. Martin’s pace

As a writer and editor for a newspaper, I am very familiar with the pressure to get a piece of writing done quickly and efficiently. George R. R. Martin, the man behind the Game of Thrones universe, which has taken the TV world by storm over the last four years, is clearly much less familiar with the concept.

Martin’s recent pace in completing his works has been glacial at best. After releasing his first three books A Game of Thrones, A Clash of Kings and A Storm of Swords in 1996, 1999 and 2000 respectively, his next two books took a combined 11 years to be released with A Feast for Crows coming out in 2005 and A Dance with Dragons coming out in 2011. When the TV show premiered three months before his last book release, the sheer volume of material that stood ahead of D.B. Weiss and David Benioff put off any concerns about how long the next book would take. Almost 5,000 pages worth of material seemed to offer plenty of time for the show to develop its menagerie of characters with a slow and steady hand.

Now, four years and four extremely successful seasons of television-rocking entertainment later, the questions about Martin’s next book The Winds of Winter have hit a fever pitch. Benioff said in an interview on March 23 what many had suspected for a long while: that the show would inevitably overcome the books and in effect, spoil the storyline for those who wanted to wait for the books to be released. Meanwhile, Martin announced plans to skip this year’s San Diego ComicCon on order to focus on writing The Winds of Winter, including a caveat that he could change his plans if he completes the book before the date of the convention. This has generally been touted as wonderful news as it would only leave one book for Martin to finish. Unfortunately, cooler heads have pointed out that a July 2015 finish for the book would be wildly optimistic given what we know about Martin’s writing style and announcements he has made on his progress.

So what is it that we know exactly? The last announcement from Martin himself estimated the book to be about one-fourth done in March 2013. In the two years since, there have not been any updates on his progress. That small fact, however, has not stopped legions of nerds from combing through Martin’s blog posts about his previous books to analyze exactly when The Winds of Winter is most likely to come out. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s stat-obsessed website, ran an article dissecting everything from the times it took Martin to write all the previous books to the “Current Mood” updates Martin includes at the end of his “NotABlog” blog posts. (For those curious, Martin had been feeling 88 percent more “excited” in his previous 100 posts versus normal.) A post on Watchers on the Wall, a popular Game of Thrones fan website, dug even deeper. The writer combed through Martin’s blog posts with a Talmudic attention to detail that, if nothing else, shows just how fervent the fans of the books are to see the books keep up with the films. The Watchers article gave a prediction of a late 2016 to early 2017 release, dismissing Martin’s zeal to skip conventions to write as a red herring. (Martin skipped Worldcon to “finish” Dance with Dragons a full four years before it was actually released.)

Fans are clamoring for the next installment for a simple reason. The dynamics of the fictional universe’s fandom will be changed in a way that has never really been experienced. The Game of Thrones TV show has overall followed the arc of the books faithfully. There have been some deviations and some deaths that had not occurred in the books. But, despite these quasi-spoilers, the overall arc of the series has matched that of the books. This created a very clear divide between those whose loyalty was first and foremost to the books — let’s call them bookers — and those who only watched the series (non-bookers) and were somewhat looked down upon by the proud bookers. The argument against the series-only fans of Martin’s fictional universe came down most clearly to spoilers. Bookers took a strong sense of satisfaction from watching non-bookers reach plot twists that they had known about for years. When the show aired the Red Wedding episode in June 2013, the Internet was flooded with videos shot by bookers of their non-booker friends experiencing the series-changing moment for the first time. The degree of pride that the bookers took from knowing what was going to happen before the non-bookers mostly came across as a bit silly.

It is by no means a unique phenomenon to this fictional universe that longtime fans bristle at the influx of new fans. It appears that, to many, part of why they loved a fictional universe was the feeling of exclusivity that came with being a fan of something that most people did not know about, as opposed to the complex and interesting worlds themselves. This is why some people resisted when droves of new fans came to comic books after the wild success enjoyed by Marvel Studios, and that is why many bookers hung spoilers over the heads of non-bookers. One could say it was sort of a sign of nerd dominance.

Unfortunately for bookers, the series will not wait for Martin, its passing of the books is inevitable now. Even if Martin wraps up The Winds of Winter by July, which won’t happen, there is still no way he is completing the seventh and final installment, A Dream of Spring, in time to keep up with the series. Season five, which will premiere on April 12, will already contain some elements from A Dance With Dragons, the latest book from the series to be released. With HBO making millions from the series, there will be nothing stopping that train. Martin has talked with Benioff and Weiss at length about the overall arc of the series and essentially, as was confirmed by Benioff last week, has given them the green light to power on through, allowing the books to catch up. This news is exciting to all fans of the show but must be devastating to the bookers, as it means that in a couple years, their dynamic with non-bookers will be flipped on its head.

Nonetheless, the latest word on what happens in the Game of Thrones universe will be the show, not the books. And really, despite the plight of the bookers, it will be fascinating to see. Something like this has never really happened before. There have been plenty film adaptations of written works but a situation where the story-leading torch is passed from the books to the adaptation is unprecedented.

Daniel Grzywacz is a senior majoring in anthropology and neuroscience. He is also the lifestyle editor at the Daily Trojan. His column, “The Showbiz Must Go On,” runs Mondays.