Heat Check: Yankees in poor shape despite Judge’s historic season


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Welcome to the first issue of “Heat Check,” detailing the hottest storylines and drama dominating Major League Baseball headlines as we inch closer to the postseason. There’s been a lot of baseball before this column’s debut, but for the first edition, we’ll check in on a couple teams from the two largest markets in the United States.

Mama, there goes that man. Every time I start to doubt Aaron Judge’s ability, he proves me wrong with another earth-shatteringly emphatic blast. Judge banged his 54th home run of the season on Monday and remains on pace to blow past the American League record of 61 homers. To some, this would be considered the overall MLB record as well, since  every player who has surpassed Roger Maris in the past has been linked to steroid usage. If Judge is to do so, he would be a shoe-in for both the AL MVP and the owner of one of the largest contracts in professional sports history.

Despite their $6 billion Forbes valuation, New York has struggled to lock down their homegrown star with contract extension talks dying out due to Judge’s high demands. Judge has been noticeably skittish whenever asked about his contract situation with the team and has likely resolved to head to the free agent market at the end of the year. 

He would be the top star on the market and would provide an otherworldly powerful bat to any contending ball club. As a 30 year old, Judge’s long-term outlook doesn’t burn as bright as fellow stars San Diego Padres slugger Juan Soto or longtime Atlanta Brave Dansby Swanson but should provide at least four to five more years of elite-level right-handed production.

Outside of Judge, things are clearly not looking up for New York right now as the Dodgers have overtaken the Yankees as the best team in baseball.

I’ll break it down for you. Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have been a highly-efficient, sexy Lamborghini Aventador, while the Yankees (aside from Judge) have been a rundown 2005 Subaru Baja. The Death Star of Los Angeles leads MLB with 94 wins as of Sept. 7, making them the only club thus far to reach the coveted 90-win plateau. The Boys from the Bronx, however, finally reached 80 wins on Sept. 4. What makes that more tragic is the fact that the Yankees were the first club to reach 70 wins way back on Aug. 1. Safe to say, these two ball clubs could not be much different.

Injuries to all-stars Nestor Cortes, Andrew Benintendi and Giancarlo Stanton have certainly limited New York’s production, but that’s not all. Trade deadline acquisitions such as starting pitcher Frankie Montas (5.87 ERA as a Yankee) and the outfielder Benintendi (currently nursing a broken wrist) have been duds, while deadline departures Joey Gallo and Jordan Montgomery look like entirely different players. 

While the Yankees have swooned, Baltimore has surged, with 26 victories in the second half and a real shot at reaching the postseason for the first time since 2017. Rookie Adley Rutschman has powered the Orioles from the shallows of mediocrity and is in the running with Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez for the AL Rookie of the Year. Recent callup Gunnar Henderson (and his luxurious flow) could prove to be the difference maker for the underdog Orioles in the playoff hunt. The once titanic 20-game Yankee lead in the AL East has fallen to a mere 4.5 over with the Tampa Bay Rays. Is Baltimore storming back from their 9.5 game deficit probable? No. Possible? Certainly.

Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman have been spectacular as of late – with Betts winning the National League Player of the Week for the last week of August. Combined with the overpoweringly dominant pitching staff, the Dodgers have essentially clinched the NL West title and the No. 1 seed in the postseason, with their 19 game lead on the Padres reaching unsurmountable heights.

While L.A. and their most likely 110+ win regular season record seems like a World Series grand slam, don’t be so sure. A Fangraphs-produced 17.3% chance at winning the series is by no means a certainty, and the baseball world has come to understand by now that anything is possible in October. A year ago, the Dodgers were facing a very similar situation – and we all know how that turned out.

Dominic Varela is a sophomore writing about all things MLB as we enter the postseason. His column “Heat Check” runs every other Thursday.