Heat Check: Contenders and pretenders head to the postseason


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The postseason bracket is set in stone, and the time for madness is now. Let’s examine every playoff squad and determine how and why  anyone can win it all.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were Major League Baseball’s first 110-game winner since the 2001 Seattle Mariners, and for good reason. The offseason acquisition of first baseman Freddie Freeman seemed to have worked out so far. This year, he posted the league’s fifth-highest Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement at 6.9, and barely lost the National League batting title to the New York Mets’ Jeff McNeil. Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts and shortstop Trea Turner were their regular MVP-contender selves once again, and midseason pickup Trayce Thompson has been a monster off the bench. Most unfairly, literally every pitcher in their starting rotation produced a sub-3 ERA. The only weakness I see in their game is the inconsistency of closer Craig Kimbrel, who posted seven losses and five blown saves this season, with those struggles becoming more obvious as of late. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, they may need to rely on blowing out their opponents this postseason in order to avoid piling the shaky Kimbrel with a heavy workload. I’m sure it won’t be too hard for them.

The Houston Astros are hilariously, outrageously good. They posted a 100-win year for the fourth time in the last five full seasons — for good reason. Yordan Alvarez is a demon with a bat in his hands, and surely cemented himself as a top-three hitter in the Major Leagues. Second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman returned to heights not seen since 2019, and rookie Jeremy Pena made up for the loss of shortstop Carlos Correa by posting a ROY-contending 3.4 fWAR campaign. Justin Verlander spat in the face of Father Time and pitched to the tune of a 1.75 ERA, while first-time All-Star Framber Valdez was the definition of consistency. Last season’s AL batting champion Yuli Gurriel was a bit of a dud, but no matter. Houston should be an absolute wrecking crew this postseason, and will ride Verlander and Valdez in their first round matchup against either Seattle or Toronto. They are my pick to come out of the American League.

The New York Yankees’ “collapse” was dramatically overhyped, but I can’t lie and say it wouldn’t have been priceless to see. Alas, collapse they did not, and New York grabbed the #2 seed in the American League, with MVP frontrunner (and AL single season home run record holder) Aaron Judge producing one of the greatest seasons in league history. First baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Giancarlo Stanton will be fully healthy entering the postseason, and along with Judge, should be enough to compensate for the rest of the squad’s rather lackluster offense. Nestor Cortes replaced Gerrit Cole as the ace of the pitching staff, and looked as nasty as Cole’s $324 million contract this season. However, the bullpen is full of holes, with Aroldis Chapman looking worse than ever. 

Oh boy, here comes Atlanta. The Braves posted a 77-33 record from June 1 on, and overtook the Mets as the top dog in the NL East and the #2 seed in the National League. Rookies Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II burst onto the scene, and should finish 1-2 in the ROY race. Infielders Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Dansby Swanson provided plenty of firepower, but their real ace in the hole is the pitching staff. Strider, Max Fried and Kyle Wright are a three-headed monster any team will be terrified to face in a five-game series. Just like last year, I expect them to grab the pennant in their pursuit of back-to-back titles.

The Cleveland Guardians were the biggest surprise in MLB this year, and managed to grab the AL Central title for the first time since 2018. Rookie Steven Kwan was electric, and breakout All-Star Andres Gimenez might be the best second baseman in the league come next season. They should be a problem for Tampa Bay, who, despite Cy Young award contender Shane McLanahan, does not sport enough offensive firepower to overcome Cleveland. I’ll take Cleveland in two.

The Mariners marched their way to the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and they can thank rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez for his help along the way. Their bullpen propelled the M’s pitching staff to one of the best in the league, and will face quite the formidable offense in their wild card matchup versus Toronto. However, I expect Seattle to calm the red-hot bat of Bo Bichette and silence the Blue Jays in three games.

The St. Louis Cardinals and their trio of old-timers continued the level of dominance almost expected from the franchise at this point and grabbed the NL Central title over Milwaukee. Third baseman Nolan Arenado and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt will finish near the top in MVP voting and can squash the Phillies’ hopes in their first round matchup. If only catcher J.T. Realmuto could play all nine defensive positions. St. Louis in three.

The Mets won 100 games this year and still have to play in the Wild Card round. At least there was one New York collapse. The big bats of Dan Vogelbach and Pete Alonso were not enough to salvage the NL East title following a flurry of pitching injuries. Unfortunately for Juan Soto and the Padres, Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom are fully healthy, and are an absolute nightmare scenario in a three game series. I’ll take the Mets in two.

Those are my surely unbiased and fact-based predictions for this postseason. For my next column, we will be down to the final four, and my utter genius will be reflected in my revised postseason picks.

Dominic Varela is a sophomore writing about all things MLB as we enter the postseason. His column “Heat Check” runs every other Thursday.