Heat Check: Winter is coming as free agency looms
Sadly, the Major League Baseball season has come to an end. The Houston Astros won their second title (their first without the aid of a trash can). The next generation of stars rose, while others rode off into the sunset. All in all, it was a season for the ages that will surely be missed by myself and like-minded fans. However, a stoppage of play does not bring an end to the excitement for the baseball world. Last year’s free agency period saw the likes of Freddie Freeman, Carlos Correa and Max Scherzer change allegiances, and subsequently turn the league upside down. This offseason might look to top that.
Unquestionably, the largest — both figuratively and literally — free agent this winter is New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge. The 6’7 colossus just wrapped up an American League record 62-homer year and the highest single-season fWAR value since Barry Bonds. The MVP will not be announced until Nov. 17, but this one’s pretty much a slam dunk. The Yankees obviously have the money, and Judge has indicated that New York would be the top team on his list. The question between the two sides, however, is the length of his contract. Judge turns 31 in April, and historical trends for players of his height and weight do not support a contract that extends past his mid-thirties. Judge also has his fair share of injury history, which has already caused New York to be especially skittish. If the Yanks are willing to match Judge’s likely $300 million asking price, then I can’t see him not signing. But if not New York, then where?
The San Francisco Giants have made it very clear they will not be “underbid” in their pursuit of Judge. The Giants need to make a sizable move in order to contend with the superstar-laden Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, and the California native may be inclined to an early homecoming if 300-plus million gets tossed his way. They’re not the only ones with deep pockets, however. See, there are two sides to the New York Mets signing Judge, at least in my case. On one hand, as a NL East rival Washington Nationals fan, this would make me very unhappy. But on the other hand, it would bring me complete and utter joy to see the hearts of Yankees fans completely shatter and subsequently descend into despair. Realistically, I don’t see it happening. Despite Mets owner Steve Cohen seemingly happy to spend any amount of money in order to turn his club into a champion, their top target remains re-signing starting pitcher Jacob deGrom.
Speaking of deGrom, his case is a bit more unique. The two-time Cy Young winner might be the best pitcher on the planet, at least, when completely healthy. The 34-year old has only made 27 starts over the past two seasons, and he likely pitched through injury in half of those. DeGrom may be seeking the highest contract in terms of average annual value in history, potentially toppling last offseason’s $43.3 million per year deal for Scherzer. Unfortunately for the Mets, they paid that deal, too, so deGrom’s asking price might be too much to handle. The Texas Rangers have made it clear that they plan on pursuing deGrom, and their middling pitching staff was often a problem in the heavy-hitting AL West. The Atlanta Braves will also seek deGrom this offseason and could be looking to sign in the two-year, $90 million range. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos is the best in the sport, after all, but I’m still not sure he could pull this off.
Those two are undoubtedly the biggest whales, but there remain plenty of sizable fish in the sea. Shortstop is particularly laden with superstar talent, with the likes of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson and Carlos Correa all potentially joining new ball clubs this winter. The NL champion Philadelphia Phillies badly need a shortstop, and it looks like they have their pick of the litter. If I had to pick one, I’d probably lean Bogaerts, as his veteran presence in the clubhouse combined with his much improved glove would be the perfect fit for Philly.
The Dodgers desperately want Turner back, but there’s a real chance he’ll sign with the cross town Los Angeles Angels instead. With a nucleus of Turner, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon, there’s no way they miss the postseason again, right? As for Swanson and Correa, their options are intriguing. The Braves, Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals all remain in contention to sign either one. Decisions, decisions.
Other stars that remain unsigned include starting pitcher Carlos Rodon, center fielder Brandon Nimmo and catcher Willson Contreras. All three provide top-five level impact at their respective positions and would be nice fits among teams looking to seriously contend. Rodon would be a nice fit for the Mets if they lose deGrom, and they might as well scoop up Nimmo if they’re going all in. Catcher is a relatively weak position across the board, so Contreras could really go anywhere (other than Chicago). Houston nearly acquired him prior to the trade deadline, but owner Jim Crane nixed the deal at the last minute. The Astros may scoop up Contreras and make this World Series-winning-deal a yearly thing. Who wouldn’t love to see that?
The offseason is a breath of fresh air for baseball fans. It lets us sit back and take in all we’ve experienced this past season and appreciate what we’ve been given, while free agency primes us for what’s ahead. Despite my own club most likely remaining silent on any major signings, I’m simply excited at the prospect of a new baseball landscape. Hopefully, that’s not just me.
Dominic Varela is a sophomore writing about all things MLB as we enter the postseason. His column “Heat Check” runs every other Thursday.