Which is the Pac-12’s top program?

Point: Despite Oregon’s recent string of success and a better record in 2012, USC remains the premier program in the Pac-12.

This Saturday, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota’s cannon of an arm — yes, it’s stronger than Matt Barkley’s — and the blur of all-purpose weapon De’Anthony Thomas’ legs will give Trojan defenders nightmares. Oh, and the Ducks’ Heisman Trophy candidate Kenjon Barner can also play a little as well.

There’s no question that No. 4 Oregon might traipse into the Coliseum and wallop No. 17 USC. Heck, I’m not sure I would bet against it.

Still, even if USC loses horribly, the Trojans currently boast the better program. Let me clarify my reasoning: The Ducks are empirically the better team in 2012, but they are not as well-situated as the Trojans for long-term success for three primary reasons.

First, Oregon coach Chip Kelly’s wandering eyes must make Oregon fans uneasy. Just this past offseason, Kelly seriously entertained the thought of bolting to the NFL and becoming the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He didn’t just entertain the thought; in fact, he was on the verge of finalizing the contract.

He ultimately declined, but who’s to say that Kelly’s interests still aren’t piqued by the prospect of testing his “gimmicky” offensive schemes against the world’s best professional talent? What if a better NFL franchise comes a-knocking with a better contract offer?

There’s little mystery surrounding Oregon’s success: Kelly recruits talent that suits his schemes. In both of his years as Oregon’s offensive coordinator, the Ducks led the Pac-10 in scoring — 38.1 points per game in 2007 and 41.9 in 2008.

Since his promotion to head coach in 2009, Kelly’s record is 49-6 and his teams have never finished worse than 11th in the Associated Press poll at the end of the season.

Without Kelly, Oregon isn’t nearly the nemesis it has been for USC lately. Now, if only some NFL team wanted to take a flier on USC coach Lane Kiffin.

Second, swept aside amid another national title quest is the fact that Oregon awaits sanctions, although, given the glacial pace of the NCAA Committee on Infractions’ investigation, it might be some time before we know their severity. Oregon is currently under investigation for its association with Willie Lyles — a self-professed “street agent.”

Oregon reportedly sent Lyles’ business a $25,000 check. Lyles later claimed that Oregon paid him to steer big-name recruits, such as LaMichael James and Lache Seastrunk, to Eugene. Though the reliability of Lyles’ word is dubious, the NCAA initiated an investigation into the allegations in September 2011.

For Oregon fans, the investigation is a ticking time-bomb ready to blow just as the program is peaking.

Lastly, for all of Oregon’s success, USC still recruits better even amid sanctions. Sure, Oregon will poach the occasional De’Anthony Thomas or five-star defensive lineman Arik Armstead from USC’s backyard, but the Trojans’ Southern Californian recruiting field is plentiful and they have much better success recruiting nationally. The Trojans flaunt tradition, weather and, quite obviously, California girls.

USC’s 2013 football recruiting class, which is already fully assembled with 18 recruits (including at least three early enrollees), is the consensus top recruiting haul in the nation so far; Oregon is No. 23.

At some point in time, a lack of recruiting stars will catch up to Oregon. After all, you can only coach up lesser talent to an extent.

For the three reasons given above, Oregon’s recent success is unsustainable. Have the Ducks established themselves as USC’s greatest competitor for the foreseeable future? Of course.

But their program’s foundation has cracks that even Nike’s wads of cash can’t seal.

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Counterpoint: The Pac-12 is experiencing a changing of the guard, as Oregon has won more than half of its last 14 meetings with USC. 

Yes, USC, for the better part of the last century, has been the top dog when it comes to college football on the West Coast. And the number of championships and Rose Bowl titles the program has to its name only further illustrates that. Few will argue otherwise. The Trojans have won 11 national championships — California is the next closest conference foe with five.

But USC’s historic pedigree continues to be overshadowed by Oregon’s recent run of success, particularly this season where the Trojans, once atop most preseason polls, are suddenly 6-2 after Saturday’s three-point loss at Arizona, while the Ducks rank No. 4 nationally at 8-0 — nearing a potential berth in the BCS title game.

This season evidently serves as a glimpse of a larger, ongoing development in the Pac-12: Oregon stands poised to displace USC as the conference’s premier program. We’re amid the unseating, so grab your popcorn or cover your eyes, depending on what jersey you’re wearing.

Here are just the recent results. Though USC holds an edge all-time in the series at 38-18-2, Oregon has won eight of the last 14 games since 1994, in addition to wins in two of the last three seasons with Chip Kelly as head coach. And the margin of those two wins over ’SC came by 27 and 21 points. Forget Notre Dame, forget UCLA and forget Stanford, the Trojans’ most daunting foe over the last decade has been Oregon: old-school tradition versus new-age flash.

This changing of the guard has been coming for a while.

Kelly has unmistakably built Oregon into not just one of the conference’s elite programs but one of the nation’s, leading the Ducks to a 42-6 mark during his tenure in Eugene.

And sure, Kelly might have a wandering eye when it comes to the NFL (don’t most coaches, by the way?), but the program, with Nike money and all, appears to be moving at 100 miles per hour no matter who’s sporting the visor on the sidelines.

Let’s be honest: Should Oregon, which comes to the Coliseum on Saturday for a primetime, nationally televised matchup against USC, upend the Trojans to seemingly put themselves in the driver’s seat for a fourth-consecutive conference crown, wouldn’t they be the prohibitive top dog? It’d be hard to contend otherwise, really.

As much as fans might opt to point to last season’s victory over the Ducks at Autzen Stadium and 10-win finish, the USC program still has not won a Pac-12 championship since the 2008 season, when Mark Sanchez was under center.

You can fault a coaching change, postseason ban, scholarship reduction or anything else you’d like, but the results are the results.

It feels like USC is losing its stranglehold. Of course, the Trojans had a near-decade run of dominance under former coach Pete Carroll from 2002-08, but it’s fallen short to Oregon in recent years — on the field, in the standings and in the polls.

Things might change Saturday — USC might very well pull off the upset. But as of late and looking forward, especially as the program faces upcoming scholarship reductions for 2013 and 2014, there aren’t enough reasons to suggest Oregon’s slowing down.

We’re watching the passing of the torch.