USC’s season isn’t lost: There’s still room to be hopeful
If USC somehow makes it back to the Pac-12 Championship this season, it should thank redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Darnold, but a special shout-out should go to the unimaginable craziness that is the Pac-12.
![Benjamin Dunn | Daily Trojan Man of many talents · Junior cornerback, kick returner and wide receiver Adoree’ Jackson is one yard away from breaking the USC record for career kick return yards. Jackson currently has 1,723 yards.](https://dailytrojan.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/benjamin_dunn_football_2_web-300x200.jpg)
Benjamin Dunn | Daily Trojan
Man of many talents · Junior cornerback, kick returner and wide receiver Adoree’ Jackson is one yard away from breaking the USC record for career kick return yards. Jackson currently has 1,723 yards.
There is a reason why the hashtag #Pac12AfterDark trends on Twitter during every Pac-12 night game. Whether it’s officials blowing calls, weird plays happening on the field, Hail Marys (cue the way-too-soon mention of the “Jael Mary”), crazy overtime endings or games dragging on deep into the night, #Pac12AfterDark is the perfect summary of the inexplicable that seems to occur out West on Saturday nights.
It is this unpredictability of the Pac-12 that gives USC the slightest of hopes of making it to the Rose Bowl — a hope that would have been laughable three weeks ago when the Trojans were 1-3, reeling after a deflating loss to Utah and breaking in a redshirt freshman as their new quarterback.
Every team in the Pac-12 South already has a division loss. No. 21 Utah fell to unranked Cal two weeks ago. UCLA has not looked like itself and quarterback Josh Rosen may miss some time. USC… Well, we already know the deal. Arizona — typically annual contenders — does not even have a conference win yet. And to top it all off, Colorado, a team that won a total of one conference game last season, is tied for first in the South heading into week seven.
That is the state of the Pac-12 these days, and we haven’t even gotten to what’s happening up north (what is happening to Stanford? And the Huskies? Really?). Simply by winning their last two conference games to get back to .500 in the division, the Trojans sit just a half game back of first in the Pac-12 South, and their odds are looking surprisingly optimistic. They own the tiebreaker on two of the three frontrunners — Colorado and Arizona State — having beaten both of them, and have upcoming games against UCLA and Arizona, the two teams below them in the standings.
That leaves Utah as the biggest roadblock to the path to the Pac-12 Championship Game. Had the Trojans not collapsed in the second half against the Utes last month, they would be 3-1 in conference play and alone in first by now. But now, Utah is in front and owns the tiebreaker, so it would need to go 3-3 the rest of the way while USC would only be able to afford one more conference loss.
The second part of that hypothetical is key — there is no point in thinking of “what ifs” if USC doesn’t take care of business against weaker opponents. I wrote before the Arizona State game that the Trojans have to go 5-0 in their next five games leading up to the road tilt against No. 5 Washington next month to even give themselves a chance in the division. That would give them a 5-2 conference record and put them in position to potentially finish either 6-3 or 7-2; both records should be good enough to fight for first.
USC’s remaining conference schedule is favorable. Aside from Washington, there are no more Alabama-like monsters to conquer. Arizona is battered up, Cal’s defense is horrific, Oregon gave up 70 points last week and UCLA is beatable.
Win all of those games, and the Trojans have a shot. But the problem with an 0-2 conference start is their fate relies on the teams ahead of them losing. Assuming a defeat to Washington, USC needs both Colorado and Arizona State to lose twice more and Utah to lose three more times.
The Buffaloes and Sun Devils play each other Saturday, and each has at least one potential loss down the line in its schedule, so Utah remains the biggest concern. Between matchups against UCLA, Washington, Arizona State and Colorado, there is a chance of three more defeats for the Utes.
It’s fruitless, though, to talk about what could be if USC lays an egg tomorrow in Arizona, is upset by Cal or Oregon, or can’t get past that other L.A. school. On the other hand, the fact that we are discussing Pac-12 Championship possibilities rather than who the next head coach should be is a step in the right direction.
You can chalk it up to parity, or to top talent dispersing equally among relatively close schools for the Pac-12 essentially beating up on itself. Some coaches complain that the records reflect poorly on the conference and will prevent it from sending a team to the playoff, a complaint USC should not have at the moment. For a program looking to re-assert itself, a conference championship followed by a Rose Bowl appearance would do the trick.
To be realistic, this is a long shot. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives USC a mere 4.6 percent chance of winning the Pac-12, and it has a far greater chance of an appearance in the Foster Farms Bowl than the Rose Bowl. But as long as the door is still open just a crack — however small it is — the Trojans should thank #Pac12AfterDark and charge straight ahead.
Eric He is a sophomore majoring in print and digital journalism. He is also the sports editor of the Daily Trojan. His column, “Grinding Gears,” runs Fridays.