Over the past four months, USC men’s basketball underwent a rollercoaster of a regular season that saw different players come and go, seemingly every week. Junior guard Rodney Rice and senior forward Amarion Dickerson — two key cogs of Musselman’s squad — were both out with season-ending injuries after just eight games, forcing Musselman to bring in graduate guard Kam Woods from the transfer portal in December.

Five-star freshman guard Alijah Arenas didn’t suit up until late January after suffering a knee injury over the summer. Then, just when USC’s (18-13, 7-13 Big Ten) starting lineup finally appeared to be finalized, graduate guard Chad Baker-Mazara was dismissed from the team at the beginning of March.

In total, Head Coach Eric Musselman rolled out 15 unique starting lineups in just 31 games, rotating between 11 different starters — none of whom found their way onto any of the All-Big Ten teams.

The end result was a team that never truly found its footing in conference play, going from an 11-0 nonconference slate to a 7-13 record and 13th-place finish in the Big Ten — firmly out of the NCAA Tournament picture. However, Musselman and company have one last chance to make their case for March: the Big Ten Tournament.

To play their way back into contention, the Trojans will likely need to win several games in the conference tournament, starting with a second-round bout against Washington (15-16, 7-13). If they can get past the Huskies, two familiar foes in No. 23 Wisconsin (22-9, 14-6) and No. 9 Illinois (24-7, 15-5) await further down the line.

Defense needs to improve

While USC has struggled on both ends of the court during its seven-game slide to end the regular season, the defense has stood out as its biggest issue. The Trojans allowed more than 80 points in six of their last seven games after doing so just seven times in the 24 games prior; their opponents also shot 48% or better in five of those games, punctuated by a season-worst 58% clip allowed in Saturday’s loss to UCLA (21-10, 13-7).

Though Musselman’s squad has allowed the seventh-lowest field-goal percentage in the Big Ten, USC also gives up the second-most points per game, largely thanks to having the worst foul rate in the conference. 

The Trojans committed at least 15 fouls in all but two of their regular-season matchups, and their two most consistent starters — sophomore forward Jacob Cofie and senior forward Ezra Ausar — both average more than three fouls per game. If USC wants to stand a chance in the conference tournament, it needs to tighten up on defense without playing too aggressively.

And the Trojans proved they’re capable of that in their Jan. 25 win over Wisconsin, which remains their only victory this season against a currently-ranked team. Against the Badgers, one of the highest-scoring teams in the Big Ten, USC allowed just a 34% shooting percentage — its lowest in a conference game — and committed its third-fewest fouls of the season, paving the way for a 73-71 upset on the road. 

The Trojans have yet to recapture the magic since then, but if they can find a way, they’ll be in much better shape to pick up a few critical wins in the Big Ten bracket.

Tournament hopes lie in Chicago

The path to the Big Dance is far from easy, but USC might be able to pull it off with a deep enough run in Chicago, where it may benefit from having a 4-0 record in neutral-court games. 

If they can manage to reach the semifinals, the Trojans would boast two wins over ranked Wisconsin, as well as a massive statement victory against a title-contending Illinois team that handed them the worst margin of defeat in the Musselman era less than a month ago.

Standing in USC’s way first is 12th-seeded Washington, which has already bested the Trojans twice this season but has otherwise struggled against much of the Big Ten. USC had two of its worst offensive performances of the season against the Huskies, who rank near the middle of the conference in defense, so a cleaner night from the field may be enough to finally break through.

Beyond Washington awaits fifth-seeded Wisconsin. The Trojans’ previous victory required a stellar outing from Baker-Mazara, but it also featured quiet nights from Arenas and Woods; if the guard duo can reach the star potential they’ve shown glimpses of this season, they’ll be more than enough to make up for Baker-Mazara’s absence.

If USC finds its way to the quarterfinals, it will be rewarded with a rematch with the fourth-seeded Fighting Illini, who looked unstoppable in the squads’ previous matchup. However, Illinois has looked somewhat vulnerable since that game, falling to UCLA and narrowly avoiding an upset from Big Ten bottom-feeder Maryland (12-20, 4-16). 

The Illini were far and away the better team in their previous matchup with USC, but the Trojans would have the benefit of two days’ worth of tournament experience this time around. The door to an upset isn’t open very wide, but it is open, and it may just be enough to get USC back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2023.

Before the Trojans can start to consider Illinois, however, they will need to make it through their first game against the Huskies. USC will face off with Washington on Wednesday at 11:30 a.m., where a win would crack that door open just a bit further — and a loss would shut it entirely.