I Reckon: Move over Iowa: South Carolina is taking your presidential primary crown

My column was founded on the principle that nobody should write off the South. It might be a bit self-centered for me to say this, but I think the Democrats are starting to listen. Have they wiretapped my apartment? My boots? Or maybe they’re reading I Reckon? Did a Democratic operative’s son or daughter happen to crack open the Daily Trojan one day and share it with their parents? Whatever it is, I’m just glad the Democrats are doing something to repent all the years spent writing off the South by making South Carolina the first presidential primary voting state. And, can I be the first to say that it took them damn long enough?

It is a seismic shift indeed, and something that I think we’ll just have to see unravel in the next presidential primary cycle to fully understand what the actual effect of this change will be. I’m sure we’re all more than accustomed to Iowa and New Hampshire being the first states to have their moments on the evening news during the primaries. All of the seemingly never-changing shots of voters in rural gymnasiums or banquet halls set an early tone for the rest of the nation to follow (or not). Well, all that is about to change, for the better.

Frankly, I don’t think the fact that this is happening during our lifetime is really appreciated enough by Gen Z, but if I said that aloud I think I’d start to sound ancient. This might seem like boring news that only my fellow annoying political science majors might be squabbling about, but there’s a great deal of significance in putting South Carolina in the front of the primary line. 

The Palmetto State single handedly revived now-President Joe Biden’s sputtering campaign in 2020, adding more credence to the trend that winners of the South Carolina primary usually go on to win the Democratic nomination. More importantly and unlike former first and second-place primary states Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina more accurately reflects the sheer diversity of the nation as a whole. If you break it down by the numbers, you’ll see what I mean. 

According to the most recent census data, Iowa is overwhelmingly white – about 90%. New Hampshire is not much different, with roughly 93% of the state’s population being white. The only reason why Iowa is still relevant is that it’s the first time presidential candidates get to perform at the voting booths, rather than through random polls. In the late 1960s, it’s complicated nominating process necessitated an early spot on the primary calendar. Beyond that, however, the Iowa caucus has long lost its relevance after 1976. This was when Jimmy Carter’s small campaign made a strong enough finish that Carter was able to capitalize on it and turn a dark horse campaign into an eventually successful one. Beyond that, there’s no reason Iowa still needs to be the first. It found its place first in line more or less because of a stroke of historical luck — there’s no intentionality behind it and New Hampshire’s primary positions. Knighting South Carolina to replace their spot in line represents an intentional change, not an accidental one, to give a larger microphone to states that more accurately reflect the racial makeup of the nation.

That’s not to say that South Carolina’s fancy new place in the queue is bound to be world-changing by any means. The state’s demographics are usually on the older side of the scale and are skewed a bit more moderately. These conditions might very well be more friendly to moderate candidates, such as the likes of Joe Biden back in 2020. But if that’s the way the cookie crumbles, then so be it. Isn’t that how a democracy is supposed to operate? 

If you’re expecting a political revolution of any kind to spring out of our democratic system and environment, especially without putting any elbow grease in, you’d have a better chance of catching rain in a strainer. Better yet, here’s a word for the wise presidential hopefuls and progressive, left-wing politicos: Don’t start thinking you’re entitled to the votes of people who you haven’t begun to reach out to. Change has to start somewhere, and it couldn’t start in a better place than a bellwether for the South like South Carolina.

Quynh Anh Nguyen is a junior writing about the implications of current Southern political events. Her column, “I Reckon,” runs every other Monday.