USC’s record against ranked opponents under Head Coach Lincoln Riley is just 5-14. 

Four years. Zero conference championships. Zero College Football Playoff appearances. 

The team’s performance is simply not up to par for a program that boasts 11 national championships, nor is it to Riley’s standard. In five years with Oklahoma, Riley led the Sooners to four Big 12 Championships and three playoff appearances — made all the more impressive considering this was during the four-team playoff era.

In his first season at USC, it seemed as if Riley carried his success from Norman, Oklahoma over to Los Angeles. The Trojans were just one win away from a likely playoff berth, leading Utah late in the first half of the Pac-12 Championship — that was, until they were outscored by the Utes 44-7 the rest of the game in a 47-24 loss, eliminating USC from playoff contention. 

We all remember what Riley said after the loss, right? 

“I’ll be disappointed if this isn’t the worst team that we have in our entire tenure here,” Riley said. 

Well, it looks like he’s as disappointed as the rest of us, with 2022 being by far the best squad during the Riley era. Since then, USC has been painfully disappointing, failing to reach double-digit wins in each of the three years while posting a measly 3-11 record against ranked teams. 

Despite the downward trend, 2026 seems — at least on the surface — different. The Trojan faithful have heard the tune all offseason: a new defense, the No. 1 recruiting class and the return of redshirt senior quarterback Jayden Maiava. A perfect storm for USC to finally live up to its expectations. 

To start the season, it looked like the offseason hype was warranted: No. 12 USC (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) started undefeated, averaging 43 points per game and picking up a shutout victory over Fresno State University (2-1). 

This sets up what I believe to be the most important stretch of Riley’s tenure thus far. Over the next six weeks, the Trojans will face four ranked teams, starting with the No. 20 Oregon Ducks (2-1) on Saturday. 

Despite what ESPN College GameDay thinks, it would not be an overstatement to say that the matchup against the Ducks is USC’s biggest game since the Pac-12 Championship Game loss all those years ago. For starters, it is the first of a brutal six-game stretch, meaning the result of this game will likely be an indicator of what’s to come over the following weeks. 

On top of that, Oregon has dominated USC in recent years; the Trojans are just 2-8 in their last 10 games against the Ducks, with Riley losing both matchups during his tenure. 

If there’s any time for that to change, it’s now. Oregon has dominated the regular season recently, making the CFP in back-to-back years, but has shown vulnerability in 2026 that was not as glaring in seasons past. 

The Ducks scraped by Boise State University (2-1) in Week 1, before dropping a game against Oklahoma State (2-1) the following week. 

Now, are they coming off an 84-0 win over Portland State University (0-4, 0-1 Big Sky)? Yes. Did they run up the score with 29 seconds left while already up 77-0 to make themselves feel better about the first two weeks? Also yes. Did they anger the football gods with this move? That remains to be seen.

The point is, this Oregon team is not what they’ve been in previous years. That, combined with a USC squad that is the best in four years, is why this game is so critical for Riley and company: The Trojans have a real shot this year to take down the Ducks. 

To further the implications of this game, if USC were to lose, its path to the playoffs becomes almost unfathomable. Oregon is currently the lowest-ranked team out of the four ranked teams that the Trojans play in the coming weeks. 

Two weeks from Saturday, the Trojans have a date in Happy Valley with No. 13 Penn State’s (3-0) annual White Out game, one of the most excruciating environments in all of college football. Three more weeks from the Oct. 10 game, USC will face the last two national champions: No. 7 Ohio State (2-1) at home and No. 5 Indiana (3-0) on the road. 

If the Trojans can come out of that gauntlet with two losses at most, and run the table otherwise, they will be in a great spot for their first-ever playoff bid. Three losses will likely kill any hope at a playoff berth. 

While I have faith in USC, I can’t say that I’m predicting them to beat either the Buckeyes or Hoosiers, meaning that this weekend’s game against the Ducks feels like a must-win. 

I can’t go this whole column omitting the Trojans’ flaws, though. Last week, they allowed 35 points to a winless Rutgers (0-3, 0-1 Big Ten) squad. We know defense is usually the issue with a Riley-coached team, which could be the same story for USC this season. 

But all that is to say: something has to change eventually. Riley has to win the big game. Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum will be packed and the lights bright in the must-win game. 

The ball is in your court, Coach Riley. 

Caleb Olguin is a sophomore writing about the ever-changing college football landscape in his column, “The Redshirt Report.” He is also a sports editor at the Daily Trojan.