College Football Pick’em: Week of 10/26

Well, friends, the college football machine rumbles on to Week 9. We’re quickly approaching that time of the year where the dust starts to settle and the playoff picture becomes clearer. It’s close, but we’re not there yet. We may be a little old to be trick-or-treating but at least we’ve still got plenty of time for surprising upsets and spooky matchups!

Day	Time	Home Team	Away Team	Spread
Thu	04:00 PM	Pittsburgh	North Carolina	-10.5
Thu	04:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	Western Michigan	17
Thu	04:30 PM	Georgia Southern	Texas State	-16.5
Thu	04:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	Buffalo	11.5
Thu	04:30 PM	Texas Christian	West Virginia	-11
Thu	07:30 PM	Arizona State	Oregon	-9
Fri	04:00 PM	Connecticut	East Carolina	-3
Fri	04:00 PM	Wake Forest	Louisville	14
Fri	05:00 PM	Rice	Louisiana Tech	11
Fri	07:15 PM	Utah State	Wyoming	-20
Sat	01:00 PM	Southern Methodist	Tulsa	-5.5
Sat	02:00 PM	Louisiana-Lafayette	Louisiana-Monroe	-7
Sat	04:00 PM	Arkansas State	Georgia State	-13.5
Sat	04:00 PM	Duke	Miami (Florida)	-9.5
Sat	04:00 PM	Houston	Vanderbilt	-15.5
Sat	04:00 PM	Iowa State	Texas	15
Sat	04:00 PM	Memphis	Tulane	-19
Sat	04:00 PM	Minnesota	Michigan	4
Sat	04:00 PM	North Texas	Texas-San Antonio	10
Sat	04:00 PM	Utah	Oregon State	-18.5
Sat	04:30 PM	Kentucky	Tennessee	5
Sat	05:00 PM	New Mexico State	Idaho	-4.5
Sat	05:00 PM	Temple	Notre Dame	15
Sat	07:30 PM	Hawaii	Air Force	13.5
Sat	07:30 PM	Washington State	Stanford	-1
Sat	08:00 PM	Washington	Arizona	-5
Sat	09:00 AM	Auburn	Mississippi	3.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Cincinnati	Central Florida	-20.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Florida State	Syracuse	-20
Sat	09:00 AM	Navy	South Florida	-10.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Old Dominion	Western Kentucky	12.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Penn State	Illinois	-9.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Purdue	Nebraska	13
Sat	09:00 AM	Texas A&M	South Carolina	-12
Sat	09:00 AM	Wisconsin	Rutgers	-19.5
Sat	09:30 AM	Boston College	Virginia Tech	-6
Sat	10:00 AM	Ball State	Massachusetts	-13
Sat	11:00 AM	Akron	Central Michigan	2.5
Sat	11:30 AM	Southern Mississippi	Texas-El Paso	-19.5
Sat	12:00 PM	California	Southern California	-5.5
Sat	12:00 PM	UCLA	Colorado	-19
Sat	12:00 PM	Virginia	Georgia Tech	10
Sat	12:30 PM	Appalachian State	Troy	-20
Sat	12:30 PM	Charlotte	Marshall	9.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Colorado State	San Diego State	3
Sat	12:30 PM	Florida	Georgia	-5
Sat	12:30 PM	Iowa	Maryland	-19.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Kansas	Oklahoma	18.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Nevada-Las Vegas	Boise State	16
Sat	12:30 PM	North Carolina State	Clemson	12.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Texas Tech	Oklahoma State	-9

Georgia at No. 11 Florida (Spread: -5)
Our model has Florida favored in this matchup though this game has lost a bit of luster with Georgia running back Nick Chubb’s knee injury and the season-ending suspension of Florida’s quarterback Will Grier. Regardless, it’ll be a rivalry matchup with SEC conference championship implications. Florida is coming off a bye after a tough loss to LSU two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Georgia is trying to forget last year’s embarrassing 38-20 loss where Florida scored its first touchdown on a fake field goal attempt. Facing a tough Florida defense, it will certainly take a massive effort from quarterback Greyson Lambert to propel the Bulldogs to victory.

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 21 Temple (Spread: 15)
The consensus matchup of the weekend features a team that’s not usually associated with marquee matchups: the Temple Owls. As one of only 12 remaining unbeaten FBS teams, Temple faces Notre Dame in arguably their biggest and toughest game of the season.

That being said, Vegas and our model predict that Notre Dame will blow out Temple. It’s true — Temple has a tough defense and a great running back in Jahad Thomas, but it’s hard to overlook their soft schedule. However, Notre Dame is coming off of a bye week and their game is on Halloween so you never know what might happen. And besides, who doesn’t love a good underdog story?

Interesting note: This will be the first ranked matchup in Temple’s history and the 212th ranked matchup for Notre Dame.

No. 12 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (Spread: -9)
UPSET ALERT!

Our model has Texas Tech as a nine-point favorite while Vegas odds have Oklahoma State as a one-point favorite, but it’ll depend on how much fight is left in Texas Tech after a tough loss to Oklahoma last week.

Texas Tech has proven they can score on anyone (see TCU game), but it’s their defense that may lose them the game. Texas Tech’s defense has given up 561.5 yards per game this season, which means that there is no question Oklahoma State will be able to at least get some points on the board. Aside from somehow managing to keep up with Texas Tech’s scoring, the other key for Oklahoma State’s defense is to force turnovers and give their offense the opportunity to attack the Red Raider’s porous defense. This could be possible considering Oklahoma’s defense has only allowed 18.9 points per game this season.

Maybe Texas Tech will score a ridiculous number of points, maybe Oklahoma State will take advantage of Tech’s porous defense and be on its undefeated way. Who knows. Tune in to find out.

USC at California (Spread: -5.5)
It’s that special weekend of the college football season for USC football fans, the Weekender. This year, though, fans should be in for a more exciting game than in previous years. Though Cal has lost two straight since a 5-0 start, don’t expect them to roll over and play dead. On the other hand, USC pulled off its biggest win of the year against Utah, looking every bit like the explosive, talented team everyone thought we were in the preseason.

So I know what you’re thinking, after such a great performance last weekend, why does our model have Cal as the 5.5 point favorite? One possible explanation is that the Trojans and the Bears have similar offensive stats with 38.9 points per game and 492.0 total offensive yards and 37.9 points per game and 504.6 total offensive yards, respectively. The same goes for yards allowed with the Trojans allowing 395.4 yards and Cal allowing 420.3 yards. The first factor likely skewing our model in favor of Cal is their slightly lower turnover margin of 0.67 versus the Trojans of 1. Second, the large home field advantage biased in our model could also help explain why our prediction is the opposite of Vegas and ESPN.

However, if the Trojan defense can continue to make plays like they did against Utah and the offensive line can give Kessler enough breathing room, we think the Trojans can come away from the Weekender victorious and remain in the hunt for the Pac-12 Championship.

Data provided by cfbstats.com
Team logos courtesy of sportslogos.net

Patrick Vossler is a senior majoring in economics. His column, “College Football Pick’em,” runs every week.