California primaries, and your vote, matter


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Students and local officials alike gathered around Ronald Tutor Campus Center on Thursday to catch a glimpse of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s first campus appearance at USC this election cycle. She and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti met with an exclusive group of student leaders and faculty to discuss terrorism prevention. Although not a campaign rally, Clinton supporters excitedly waited outside the tall glass doors of the campus center and formed a long standby line to gain access to the event. To Clinton supporters, the few, solemn pro-Bernie protesters or those who proudly identify as none of the above, Clinton’s presence meant something.

The California primary is months away, and yet both Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders have already made appearances in Los Angeles. Be it Clinton’s debut at USC or Sanders’ energizing rally at the Wiltern, one thing is clear: California is going to be an important state in this year’s presidential primaries.

With 475 delegates at stake, California stands a strong chance of making a difference for both candidates. If Sanders fares reasonably well on the East Coast and throughout the territories, winning a solid majority in California might mean narrowing the gap between himself and Clinton to 70 or so delegates — a huge improvement from where his current position, roughly 300 delegates in Clinton’s rear-view mirror. For Clinton, winning big in California could mean the end of her worries — an undeniable springboard to the nomination. At that point, one might be able to safely call Sanders’ race a lost one. So, no matter if you support Clinton or Sanders or how wide the gap may seem or how safe your candidate appears — come June 7, it’ll be time to turn out.

The delegate system works thus: 475 delegates of California’s ultimate total 548 are pledged delegates, meaning their vote must coincide with primary results. An important 158 of those delegates will be pledged based on the vote statewide, rather than on the basis of individual districts — that’s 158 delegates to whoever takes the state.

California could very well turn out to be a good race for Sanders — the state boasts a record number of large college campuses. Sanders is favored in Silicon Valley and polls well with working-class Democrats, many of whom call California home.

On the other hand, we can observe Hillary’s long-time favor among affluent Democrats and Hispanics — both who are concentrated up and down the coast and throughout southern and central California. She’s polling ahead of Sanders in some counties, and draws support from constituencies with historically reliable turnout. Despite the millennial concentrations among universities, Clinton may not have much to fear from the California primary.

So it’s not surprising to see that both candidates are putting in face time with California in these early stages — especially the Los Angeles area. In primaries past, the delegate deficit between the two candidates has usually been large enough to discount California. Neither purple nor front-loaded, Californians might once have had to consider themselves virtually unnoticeable in the primaries, other than their massive delegate count.

But this election season has diverged from all traditional logic and sensibilities. One-third of Republican frontrunners in January had no prior political experience or legal training. The currently favored GOP candidate pursues the complex foreign policy platform of a really, really big wall. Meanwhile, a self-avowed democratic socialist just took Kansas and Oklahoma by very comfortable margins. November’s on the horizon; time to ride it out.

It comes down to this: A few apolitical and yet stridently self-assured college students will take great joy in haughtily informing you that the election doesn’t matter because your vote doesn’t count. They took 11th-grade civics and learned that California’s really big and blue, and therefore, they are excused from paying attention. Luckily for American democracy, they’re very wrong.

Even to the Republican party, in which Donald Trump has presented a historic upset, California’s primary might turn the tide against a Trump presidency. The difference between a Clinton or a Sanders run against Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will be a monumental one. The general election will be decisive, and its fate will be chosen now, in the primaries. There’s plenty at stake and much to be gained — and lost — for both Clinton and Sanders. Every delegate is about to count.

So, red or blue, whether You’re With Her or Feeling the Bern, if you believe in the political self-determination which all U.S. citizens are promised, exercise your civil right and civic duty: Vote.

Lily Vaughan is a freshman majoring in history and political science. Her column, “Playing Politics,” runs  Fridays.