College Football Pick’em: Week of 10/19

Boy, you know it’s a slow week in college football when College GameDay is at James Madison instead of an FBS school. But predicting games can make any mundane week of matchups fun. Besides, after last weekend I think everyone’s hearts could use a break, especially Michigan fans. But oh man, what a time to be alive. The Associated Press Top 25 now has four non-power conference schools (Memphis, Toledo, Houston and Temple), along with teams such as Pittsburgh and Duke that are known more for their basketball teams than anything else.  Even with just a handful of ranked matchups this week, there’s still plenty of mystery games for us to talk about.

Day	Time	Home Team	Away Team	Spread
Thu	04:00 PM	East Carolina	Temple	-4
Thu	04:30 PM	Appalachian State	Georgia Southern	-11
Thu	06:00 PM	UCLA	California	-6
Fri	05:00 PM	Tulsa	Memphis	-7.5
Fri	07:30 PM	San Diego State	Utah State	6.5
Sat	01:00 PM	Arizona	Washington State	-12
Sat	01:00 PM	Nevada	Hawaii	-19
Sat	01:00 PM	South Florida	Southern Methodist	-12.5
Sat	01:00 PM	Vanderbilt	Missouri	-8.5
Sat	01:30 PM	Cincinnati	Connecticut	-12.5
Sat	02:00 PM	Idaho	Louisiana-Monroe	-16
Sat	03:00 PM	Florida International	Old Dominion	-17.5
Sat	04:00 PM	Georgia Tech	Florida State	3
Sat	04:00 PM	Louisiana State	Western Kentucky	-15.5
Sat	04:00 PM	Mississippi	Texas A&M	-17
Sat	04:00 PM	San Jose State	New Mexico	-5.5
Sat	04:00 PM	Texas State	South Alabama	1
Sat	04:00 PM	Texas-El Paso	Florida Atlantic	12.5
Sat	04:30 PM	Mississippi State	Kentucky	-10.5
Sat	04:30 PM	Southern California	Utah	-11
Sat	05:00 PM	New Mexico State	Troy	-9
Sat	05:00 PM	Rutgers	Ohio State	9
Sat	07:15 PM	Boise State	Wyoming	-20.5
Sat	07:30 PM	Oregon State	Colorado	-3.5
Sat	07:30 PM	Stanford	Washington	-18
Sat	09:00 AM	Arkansas	Auburn	-18.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Baylor	Iowa State	-20.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Central Florida	Houston	19.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Charlotte	Southern Mississippi	13
Sat	09:00 AM	Miami (Florida)	Clemson	-14
Sat	09:00 AM	Nebraska	Northwestern	-14.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Rice	Army	-5
Sat	09:00 AM	Syracuse	Pittsburgh	6
Sat	09:00 AM	Texas	Kansas State	-10.5
Sat	09:00 AM	Wake Forest	North Carolina State	10
Sat	09:30 AM	Louisville	Boston College	-4
Sat	10:00 AM	Air Force	Fresno State	-17
Sat	10:00 AM	Kent State	Bowling Green State	12
Sat	10:00 AM	Navy	Tulane	-18.5
Sat	11:00 AM	Western Michigan	Miami (Ohio)	-18
Sat	12:00 PM	Ball State	Central Michigan	-2.5
Sat	12:00 PM	Massachusetts	Toledo	11
Sat	12:30 PM	Alabama	Tennessee	-18.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Buffalo	Ohio	3.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Illinois	Wisconsin	-6
Sat	12:30 PM	Louisiana Tech	Middle Tennessee State	-3
Sat	12:30 PM	Marshall	North Texas	-17.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Michigan State	Indiana	-13.5
Sat	12:30 PM	North Carolina	Virginia	-16.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	-20
Sat	12:30 PM	Oklahoma	Texas Tech	-15
Sat	12:30 PM	Oklahoma State	Kansas	-20.5
Sat	12:30 PM	Virginia Tech	Duke	-2.5
Tue	05:00 PM	Arkansas State	Louisiana-Lafayette	-11.5

No. 15 Texas A&M at No. 24 Mississippi (Spread: -17)

This matchup should be known as the “regroup” game. Last weekend, Ole Miss had a surprising loss against Memphis, while Texas A&M was on the receiving end of a ’Bama beatdown.

The Rebels will get back their excellent left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, who has missed the first seven weeks of the season due to an NCAA investigation. Despite this, the Rebels will have other defensive holes with defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche out due to concussion protocol and center Robert Conyers out with a torn ACL.

While the Rebels’ defense is looking rather thin, Aggies quarterback Kyle Allen’s three pick-sixes against the Tide last week show that Texas A&M’s quarterback situation isn’t looking too hot either. Our model has Mississippi as 17-point favorite but the personnel issues for both teams means this game could easily be much closer.

Tennessee at No. 8 Alabama (Spread: -18.5)

While the rivalry between these two teams isn’t what it has been, Tennessee is looking to keep the momentum going after their upset of Georgia before their bye week. Alabama has won the past eight meetings with Tennessee quite handily. Last year, however, was a different story. Tennessee cut an early 27-0 deficit to to 27-17. The Vols still eventually lost 34-20 but with Quarterback Joshua Dobbs back at the helm, Tennessee will be looking to keep this game close. For this to happen, Dobbs will need to have another good game and lead the Vols defense against a tough ’Bama defense.

No. 6 Clemson at Miami (Florida) (Spread: -17)

This matchup is the first of two straight road games for Clemson before a possible showdown of undefeated teams against Florida State. But focusing on this weekend, Clemson at Miami features one of the best quarterback matchups of the week and possibly the season. Quarterbacks Deshaun Watson (Clemson) and Brad Kaaya (Miami) both started as freshmen last season and have steadily improved since then. This season Watson has thrown 235 yards per game, 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. While impressive, the number of interceptions is a potential source of concern for Clemson fans, especially against a Miami offense led by Kaaya. Kaaya has proven that he will be a top choice in the 2016 NFL draft with 300 yards per game, 10 touchdowns and only one interception on the season. The main problem for Miami is that Watson, unlike Kaaya, has the backing of a well-rounded team that, according to S&P+ ratings, has a top-25 run offense, a top-10 pass defense, a top-five pass offense and the best run defense in the league.

Now this is where things get weird. Our model has Miami as a two-touchdown favorite. I know what you’re thinking and trust me, we’re quite confused too. The best explanation is that our model overemphasizes turnover margins. Miami’s 2.17 per game turnover margin compared to Clemson’s -0.17 per game turnover margin causes our model to favor Miami, despite the wealth of evidence suggesting otherwise.

Texas Tech at No. 17 Oklahoma (Spread: -15)

Man, this will be an interesting one. Yes, I say that a lot, but this matchup, in particular, is going to be interesting because of the varied performances of both teams each week. The same Texas Tech team that nearly upset Texas Christian struggled to beat Kansas 30-20 last week. Meanwhile, the Sooners put up 55 points in their shutout of Kansas State after getting rocked by Texas.

Both of these teams performances’ have varied from week to week but what’s clear is both teams have high-powered offenses and the scoreboard operator better be ready for an eventful Saturday.

No. 3 Utah at Southern California (Spread: -11)

I know what you’re thinking, “USC is favored?!” You know what’s crazier? Vegas has us as a favorite (OK, only three points, but better than nothing). And it should go without saying — the folks in Vegas usually know what they’re doing when it comes to college football.

So what’s the deal then? First, we’ve had quite a few close losses (the Stanford, Washington, and Notre Dame scoring margins were all within 10 points). As surprising as this may sound, scoring margin is a pretty good predictor of future performance, sometimes even better than a team’s win-loss record. USC and Utah have the same scoring margin (+17 points per game). True, the Trojans have an interim coach, but we also have a lot of talent on offense. The deciding factor will be whether or not USC’s offense will be able to stay on the field and make enough big plays against Utah’s tough defense.

Utah has proven itself on the road twice against Fresno State and Oregon. And the Utes have beaten Michigan and Cal. So there’s no doubt that Utah has a great defense and an impressive resume of wins this season. And it’s quite possible that USC simply looks better on paper, but trying to guess the outcome is what makes college football so much fun.

And if we do lose, at least we know the experts in Vegas still believe in us.

Data provided by cfbstats.com
Team logos courtesy of sportslogos.net

Patrick Vossler is a senior majoring in economics. His column, “College Football Pick’em,” runs every week.